However, most price action occurred during the follow up press conference at 18:30 GMT up to 19:30 GMT. The press conference is more notable due to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve taking journalist questions. If the journalists do their job properly, they get more information out of the Chairman about the future supply and value of the USD.
In general, the Chairman said that the Fed is not thinking to do anything. It would take a lot of bad economic data for the Fed to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, potential hikes would take a lot higher than current inflation. Moreover, the Chairman expressed that inflation should decrease when the winter passes and shelter costs decrease. Namely, as people spend less for heating, inflation numbers are set to go down.
The comments managed to push the metal up to the combined resistance of the 2,330.00 level and the 200-hour simple moving average. However, up to mid-Thursday, the resistance levels had held twice, as the metal fails to recover. At mid-day, the price passed below 2,300.00 and more losses appeared to be upcoming. Economic Calendar Analysis
There is one more important event this week. On Friday, at 12:30 GMT the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will reveal the monthly employment data for the United States. The data release consists of three data sets.
First and most important is the Non-farm Employment Change that shows the number of new employed people over the month.
Secondly, the markets watch the Average Hourly Earnings monthly change. If there are less people employed, but the rest are getting paid a lot more it is still a sign of upcoming inflation.
Third and the least watched is the official Unemployment Rate. This numbers is politicized and manipulated so much that it barely reflects the real situation in the labour markets. Pure numbers like the data above are what the markets watch.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The decline could look for support in Wednesday's low level at 2,280.00. Further below, there is an April low and high level range at 2,265.00/2,268.00. Below this zone, the 2,250.00 has shown to be capable of impacting the metal. If all of these fail, the 2,225.00/2,230.00 range will come into play, before the 2,200.00 mark is reached.
However, if there is a sudden run to safety in the markets, prices for gold would surge. The metal would then face the 2,300.00 and the 50-hour SMA as resistance. Higher above the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages are set to act as resistance near 2,320.00. Further above, watch the marked zones that could act as resistance and support after being broken.
XAU/USD daily charts review
We previously wrote: "On the daily candle chart, the metal shows to be massively overbought, as it has left far below the current price the daily simple moving averages. It needs to consolidate by trading sideways or declining, before resuming the broader surge."The decline is occurring, as the metal has pierced the support line that connects the February and March low levels. The trend line was expected to keep the metal from declining. A potential target for the decline could be the 2,223.00 level and the ascending 50-day simple moving average near 2,050.00.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
On Tuesday, 66% of Dukascopy traders were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 82% to buy the metal.
After the Fed events, traders were still bearish, as 65% of open positions were short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 75% to buy.