However, most price action occurred during the follow up press conference at 18:30 GMT up to 19:30 GMT. The press conference is more notable due to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve taking journalist questions. If the journalists do their job properly, they get more information out of the Chairman about the future supply and value of the USD.
In general, the Chairman said that the Fed is not thinking to do anything. It would take a lot of bad economic data for the Fed to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, potential hikes would take a lot higher than current inflation. Moreover, the Chairman expressed that inflation should decrease when the winter passes and shelter costs decrease. Namely, as people spend less for heating, inflation numbers are set to go down.
On the EUR/USD charts it all resulted in a sudden move above the 1.0675/1.0700 range. The range had previously failed to hold as support and was turning into resistance. These fundamental events have moved the rate back above the zone and the support of the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0689.
Economic Calendar Analysis
There is one more important event this week. On Friday, at 12:30 GMT the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will reveal the monthly employment data for the United States. The data release consists of three data sets.
First and most important is the Non-farm Employment Change that shows the number of new employed people over the month.
Secondly, the markets watch the Average Hourly Earnings monthly change. If there are less people employed, but the rest are getting paid a lot more it is still a sign of upcoming inflation.
Third and the least watched is the official Unemployment Rate. This numbers is politicized and manipulated so much that it barely reflects the real situation in the labour markets. Pure numbers like the data above are what the markets watch.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
A surge of the Euro against the US Dollar could face resistance in the 1.0740/1.0750 range and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0755. Higher above, the 1.0800 mark is set to keep the pair down.On the other hand, a decline of the rate below the 1.0675 level and all the technical levels in the 1.0675/1.0700 range might find support in the 1.0650 level. This level was strong enough to reverse a decline on May 1st. Further below, note the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.0626 and the 1.0600/1.0610 range.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate is above the 1.0635/1.0700 range. The range is once again acting as support. It did not stop the pair's recovery and turn into resistance, as it was speculated two weeks ago.The ongoing surge could eventually face additional resistance from the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages that are located near the 1.0800 mark.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders reduce stick to positions
On Tuesday, traders were 58% bullish as that amount of open position volume was in long positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 52% to sell.
After the fundamental events, traders were still 58% bullish and orders were 51% to sell. Trades still wait for a EUR/USD recovery.