Economic Calendar Analysis
The US Consumer Price Index will impact the market this week. Everything else is noise or will have less impact. CPI data sets are scheduled to be published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Prior to the CPI, on Tuesday, at 12:30 GMT the United States Producer Price Index will be published. The data shows price level changes at the producer level. Usually, a price increase at this level results in a price hike at the consumer level. Namely, PPI grows before the CPI.
On Wednesday, together with the CPI data another data set will be published. The Retail Sales data is expected to provide additional insight into the situation in the United States. It could reveal that despite higher prices, people keep buying goods. On the other hand, the Retail Sales might show that the consumer has had enough and has reduced spending.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
The Euro's surge against the US Dollar is bound to face the 1.0800 mark and the weekly simple pivot points that are spread out up until the 1.0900 mark. If the surge progresses, the 1.0900 mark would eventually also act as resistance. Meanwhile, note the early April high level range at 1.0875/1.0885, which stopped an attempted surge. In addition, the 1.0850 level has shown to be capable of acting as support and resistance.Meanwhile, a decline is expected to look for support in the 50-hour simple moving averages and the combination of the weekly simple pivot point and the 100-hour simple moving average near 1.0060. A decline further below 1.0740 is set to look for support in the ascending 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, prior to the pair reaching the 1.0675/1.0700 range that has acted as support and resistance. Further below, note the 1.0650 level that provided support at the start of the month. Further below, the 1.0600 level and the low level zone just above it will impact the EUR/USD.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate faces additional resistance in the form of the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. After the employment data release, the 50 and 200-day SMAs were pierced. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA held.Above the moving averages note the upper trend line of the descending channel pattern. From a technical viewpoint it should force the rate down.
However, the combination of the fundamental events that we have had indicates that the Fed could return to considering rate cuts during this year. A change in the underlying fundamentals would force the rate to break the pattern and establish a new one. In this case scenario the moving averages would also turn into support.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Dukascopy traders are neutral
On Monday, traders were 51% long on the pair. That proportion of all open Swiss Foreign Exchange positions was in bullish positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 57% to buy.