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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-06-2012 - Afternoon
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 29/06/2012 18:05 | |
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Featured Product
Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, analyses the Japanese Yen performance
I think the Yen is still very much perceived as safe haven in the current environment. With ongoing concerns about the European crisis we see USD/JPY quite comfortably below the 80 level. I believe, if we see the continuing stress in the bond markets in Spain and Italy, we will see the Yen continuing to outperform. Consequently, we see USD/JPY heading lower. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"If yield spreads between peripheral and German government bonds narrow in a sizable and sustained way, FX may be more confident about the rally. If the rally fades, euro bears will be energized by the failure of the euro to hold its gains even after demonstrably good news."- HSBC (based on MarketWatch) The shared European currency skyrocketed today against the greenback as the EU top officials came up with concrete plan to address the debt turmoil. If a bullish trend accelerates, then 100.58 (PP Weekly) is likely to be the first target to be tested by bullish investors. |
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Retail sales in Germany unexpectedly declined for a second straight month in May highlighting the negative impact of debt crisis on economy. On monthly basis retail sales contracted 0.3% contrasting the predicated improvement of 0.2%. On annual basis sales have lost 1.1%. Germany's unemployment level remained flat at 6.8% in June while the number of jobless people climbed by 7000. |
Expert Commentary
"I think the Yen is still very much perceived as safe haven in the current environment."
Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, analyses the Japanese Yen performance. >> |
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Press Review
Europe
EU Leaders Ease Debt-Crisis Rules On SpainEuro-area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy as an outflanked German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave in on expanded steps to stem the debt crisis. |
Market Research
Currency index & Volatility: Japanese Yen
Significance of the Japanese Yen and the extent to which the currency impacts exchange rates, manifested by the average correlation coefficient (red line), stays at elevated levels, despite a recent sharp drop to 0.73. Accordingly, we expect the Yen to play a major role in defining future trends, especially in Yen crosses. Moreover, the currency will be the major driver of volatility in the markets. |
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current and six-month global economic expectations deteriorated in May. Gauges assessing the economic outlooks fell to 0.47 and 0.48, Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.65 from 0.64 in April . |
Global Stock Market Review
Hang Seng
Hang Seng Index soared 2.19% or 416.19 points to 19,441.46 on Friday as market participants turned to riskier assets after the EU leaders agreed to ease borrowing conditions for Spain. A fall in industrial profits in May restricted gains of oil and gas sector. |
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Commodity Overview
Industrial metals
Industry metals, except for zinc, plunged on Thursday on decreasing risk-appetite among traders as the EU summit has not generated clear response to deepening crisis in the single currency union yet. |
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The pattern started when the pair rebounded from 1.5576 and after testing support levels at around 1.5484 and 1.5573 it has slowed down at 1.569 where the pair is currently trading. Technical indicators on aggregate point at a strong bull market outbreak probability on the 1H time horizon. Although major resistance levels have been broken in the last few hours long traders still should focus on the pattern resistance band at around 1.570 and on the 21st of June high at 1.5733. |
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Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors. |
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:00 GMT. |
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| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
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