EUR/USD returns to 1.0900

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
At the start of April trading, the US Dollar was highly volatile. Initially, OPEC+ decreased production. The decrease caused a surge of oil prices. The increase of oil prices first of all increased demand for oil deals in USD and secondly signals that inflation would remain high. High inflation is expected to be the basis for more USD interest rate hikes.

However, by mid-Monday, the markets had shrugged off the news and the USD was near previous levels. On the EUR/USD charts it resulted in a drop below 1.0800 and a subsequent recovery above 1.0900. In the near term future, the pair might test the 1.0910/1.0930 range.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 14:00 GMT could cause a move in the US Dollar.

On Wednesday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment change at 12:15 GMT might impact the USD. Afterwards, at 14:00 GMT note the ISM Services PMI release.

Above all, on Friday, at 12:30 GMT, the United States will publish the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD hourly chart

A surge above 1.0910/1.0930 would face no technical resistance. However, the pair might stop at the 1.0950 and 1.1000 levels.

On the other hand, a decline might look for support in the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, the 1.0850 and 1.0800 levels and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0837.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair is respecting the previous resistance level of 1.0720/1.0725. The prior resistance has turned into support. The pair is making another attempt to reach the April high level at 1.0937.

Above the April high, the 2023 January high at 1.1030 could stop the surge.

Daily chart




Traders are shorting

On Friday, trader open positions were bearish, as 60% of open position volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 55% to buy the Euro against the USD.

On Monday, traders were 61% short and orders were 56% to sell.

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