On Thursday, the EUR/USD passed the support of the 55-hour simple moving average, which began to provide resistance at 1.0868. In the meantime, the pair still found support in the 100-hour SMA at 1.0840.
In the meantime, next week's economic calendar events have been analysed, and some events are expected to cause notable volatility.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Due to the fundamental changes in the markets, Dukascopy Analytics suggests to note the scheduled macroeconomic events, but avoid using historical data for guidance.
Namely, the whole world changes the money supply by announcing monetary stimulus and government expense increases. In other words, the central banks are creating more money and giving it to governments to stop the effects of the coronavirus. In effect, each announcement causes a fall of the currency that it affects.
In regards to the week up to April 10, Producers Price Index and Consumer Price Index could cause notable reactions above 20 pips. Previously, the release of these data sets did not cause an increase of exchange rate volatility.
Next week, data is bound to reveal, how the coronavirus has continued to impact the US economy.
On Wednesday, the US Retail Sales data sets are bound to be published at 12:30 GMT. Most likely they will surprise the markets with the reveal of a drop in US consumption.
On Thursday, all attention is expected to be set on the weekly US Unemployment Claims. During the last weeks this previously ignored announcement has been revealing shocking data, as during the two week period almost ten million US workers claimed unemployment benefits. The unemployment claims were previously ignored as they had stopped causing market reactions.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On Thursday morning, the pair had bounced off the support of the 100-hour SMA at 1.0840 and began a surge, which was testing the resistance of the 55-hour SMA at 1.0867.If the rate breaks the resistance of the 55-hour SMA, the rate could next test the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average and the weekly pivot point at 1.0906.
On the other hand, the pair could pass the support of the 100-hour SMAs at 1.0840. In this case the rate would have no technical support. Due to that reason previous round price levels should be looked at for guidance. For example, at the end of the last week, the rate was kept up by the 1.0780 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate was trading sideways after bouncing off the support of the 1.0780.
In the meantime, the rate has above it the resistance of the daily simple moving averages from 1.0979 to 1.1068.
Daily chart
On Thursday, 72% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
On Wednesday, the sentiment was 70% short.