Gold could test 1,510.00 level

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Friday, Gold had surged slightly, but it had not broken out of the trading range that forces the metal to bounce around the 1,500.00 level.

During the early hours of the day's London trading, it was expected that gold would test the resistance of the 1,510.00 level, which is the upper boundary of the range, in which the metal's price has been since September 13.

Economic Calendar Analysis



Next week gold price might be impacted by the strength of the US Dollar adjusting to US macroeconomic data.

On Thursday, the US Final GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event could cause a minor move.

The week will end with the US Durable Goods Orders data release at 12:30 GMT. The event will consist of the release of US Durable Goods Orders and US Core Durable Goods Orders.

However, note that during the last six months the markets did not react to the Durable Goods Orders. For example the EUR/USD moved less than 10 pips during the timeframe of ten minutes around the data being released.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

On Friday morning, the yellow metal's price was bound to once more test the resistance of the 1,510.00 level.

If the metal passes it, the price could surge up to the 1,520.00 level and later on to the 1,550.00 mark.

On the other hand, the metal is more likely to fail, as it has for a week. In that case it would retreat back to the 1,500.00 level.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the price for gold has pierced the lower trend line of the ascending channel pattern. It is a clear signal that the surge of the metal might have ended.

Meanwhile, the support of the 55-day simple moving average was approaching the commodity price from below, near the 1,475.00 level.

Daily Chart


Decline of short sentiment ends

On Friday, 52% of open gold position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

The sentiment had not changed much since it declined to 53% short on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were neutral – 59% of orders were to buy and 41% to sell.

Previously, 53% of orders were set to buy.

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