- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish (+2%)
- 65% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong resistance cluster at 1.2350
- Upcoming fundamentals: CB Consumer Confidence
Slight downside potential could be apparent during the first part of the day; however, the Euro should eventually recover.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Building Permits data report on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 3 pips, or 0.03%.
The Census Bureau released the Building Permits data that came out slightly better-than-expected and instead of the forecast of 1.33M, the residential building permits grew by 1.35M in the period of March.
Building Permits rose by 2.5% annually, reaching the 1.354M growth pace, thus signaling how much of a construction is in the process. Moreover, single-family house building has retained close to the utmost levels ever since the recession began.
Calm session
The only noteworthy data release in this session is Consumer Confidence published by the US Conference Board at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD tests 1.22
The Euro remained under the bearish pressure on Monday. Downside risks accelerated early in the session when sluggish Euro zone's Manufacturing PMI dragged the pair down to the dashed trend-line and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2235. The pair subsequently edged even lower just to end the day below the weekly S1.Technical indicators suggest that this psychological 1.22 level is likely to surrender today. However, the comparably strong support formed by the weekly S2 and the monthly S1 that should hold strong is located nearby at 1.2170.
On the other hand, the 1.22 could stop the pair's three-day decline, especially when the 100-day SMA is likewise supporting this level. In case of an upward movement, the Euro should target the senior channel and the 55-hour SMA at 1.2270.
Hourly Chart
The strong downside momentum this week has resulted in a breakout of the 55-day SMA and the senior channel circa 1.23. By Tuesday morning, the Euro was testing the 100-day moving average.
It is likely that some bullish correction occurs this week; however, the trend in the medium term should nevertheless remain south. The following downside target is the 200-day SMA near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment allays
EUR/USD keeps strengthening its bullish sentiment with 56% of open positions being long (+2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro and the US Dollar are both 53% bearish.
OANDA has turned bearish on the Euro, as 51% of its traders are holding long positions. This sentiment was 54% bearish on Monday morning. Saxo Bank clients still remain bearish with 56% of open positions being short (-3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility