Community Forecasts for January 19-23: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
During the trading week ended January 17, the EUR/USD pair was developing in a rather calm manner; however, some global fundamental news influenced the pair's movements in the negative way. The Euro remained near nine-year lows against the US dollar on Monday, as expectations for fresh stimulus measures in the Eurozone continued to weigh on the pair, while oil prices continued to fall. Moreover, the dollar pulled away from recent 12 year highs, after data showed US retail sales fell more-than-expected last month by 0.9%, while core retail sales slumped 1.0% in December, disappointing forecasts for a 0.1% increase. However, on Thursday the pair started its decline, after the Swiss National Bank announced a removal of the floor at 1.20 in terms of the EUR/CHF currency pair, after more than three years. This decision hit the Euro hard as it was pushed 0.57% down to 1.1714 level. This move is certainly related to the upcoming ECB decision and implies a very big potential QE program. On Friday, the pair plummeted even more. Consumer prices across the single monetary area fell for the first time in more than five years. CPI in the Eurozone decreased 0.2% in December comparing to an increase of 0.3% in November. Core CPI, in turn, stayed unchanged at 0.7% level, below expectations for 0.8%. As a result, the pair finished last week at 1.1590  level.
In a week time, sentiment on the EUR/USD worsened, as now more than 71% of traders predict the Euro to lose value, compared to previous week's 61%. The mean forecast for January 23 is located around the 1.1530 level. Among important fundamentals, data on German economic sentiment will be published on Tuesday, followed by the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. From American side, data on initial jobless claims is going to be released on Thursday and manufacturing PMI will be announced a day later.

© Dukascopy Bank SA
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