USD/JPY likely to set weekly losses

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"The distribution between the buy and sell orders have widened once again, as the buy ones increased their amount - 70% and 30% respectively. That could lead to a rebound in price; although, that could be limited by the closest resistance that is located at 119.05 (weekly S1). At the same time, if the selling pressure continue to increase a decline could be limited by the closest support that is placed at 116.75 and is represented by the monthly PP."

© Dukascopy Bank SA
Even though the USD/JPY pair appreciated yesterday and is trying to extend this climb, the pair has still declined on a weekly basis, as it dropped more than 400 pips in the first three days of the week, after reaching the highest level this year at 121.85. However, the pair's retreat was stopped, after the better-than-expected retail sales data in US yesterday. US consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the US economy, rose in November as lower gasoline prices and gains in wages provided a boost to the holiday shopping season, urging the biggest gain in retail sales in eight months and giving the economy a lift. Sales of US retailers increased 0.7% in November, stronger than the projected rise of 0.4% and the best result since March, following an upwardly revised 0.5% advance in October, the Department of Commerce said.

Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims across the country dropped to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 in the week ended December 5, compared with 297,000 seen in the prior week. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better gauge of labour market trends as it strips out weekly volatility, rose by 250 to 299,250, staying below the 300,000 mark for the 13th consecutive month.

Meanwhile in Japan, April's sales tax increase continues weighing on consumer sentiment in Japan, as Cabinet Office survey revealed confidence among households fell for a fourth consecutive month in November. The sentiment index, which includes views on jobs and incomes, came in at 37.7, the lowest level since April and down from 38.9 in October. The index measuring employment levels declined by 1.9 points to 42.8 in November and the "willingness to buy durable goods" index fell 1.1 points to 35.4.







Elections in Japan

The first three days of the week were relativvely calm; however, the weekend is coming and this will be relatively loud weekend since Lower House Elections in Japan are taking the stand. Nevertheless, it is more or less clear that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to remain in his position. However, today we will be seing the releases of US PPI and preliminary UoM inflation expectations.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

USD/JPY hovers around 119

At the first half of the year USD/JPY was trading almost completely flat, as it traded around the 102 level. However, at the second part of August the Greenback started to outperform the Japanese peer rather heavily. Recently, the pair breached the 120 mark and for the time being it remains a target for the pair's bulls since the Greenback has slipped below it. Nonetheless, if traders' fail to breach this substantial level then it is liekly to trade around 118/119 levels.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

The Greenback has managed to reverse some of the recent losses that it faced against the Japanese Yen; however, there is a very low possibility of the pair setting weekly gains. Moreover, the technical levels remain more to the upside, especially the daily ones and that could mean that the pair's bulls are ready to form another attack towards the psychological leve at 120.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

USD/JPY spreads (avg, pip) and volatility

© Dukascopy Bank SA








SWFX traders are neutral

The sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains neutral with respect to USD/JPY, as of today 52% of the market participants are long. Concerning the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there are significantly more commands to buy, namely 70%. It implies that, if USD/JPY rebounds, in the near-term it may be stopped by recent high, which simultaneously is this year's high and possibly it could push the pair lower. However, if the pair continue to retreat, most likely it will be stopped by the monthly PP and weekly S2 at 116.75/56.

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