EUR/USD returns back above weekly S1

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative (30% bullish / 70% bearish). It is likely that the pair will increase in price, with the closest resistance for it located at 1.2447 and is represented by the weekly pivot point and 20-day SMA. At the same time, the downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.2364 and is represented by the weekly S1." 

© Dukascopy Bank SA
Yesterday, the European currency surged against all major currencies but Swiss franc, following the press conference by the ECB President Mario Draghi on the future of QE program. The Euro gained the most value versus Aussie and Loonie, by 0.80% and 0.73%, respectively. An increase to US dollar reached 0.55% during the day. At the same time, the shared currency lost 0.09% against the Swiss franc, registering the only decline of the trading day.

The European Central Bank refrained from any bold measures or hints, keeping its interest rates at all-time low of 0.05%. The ECB Governor Mario Draghi said that the governing council will assess early next year whether its current measures are sufficient to bring consumer prices toward its official goal of below but close to 2%, and noted the sharp drops in oil prices may make that objective more difficult to achieve. Outlining new, lower economic growth and inflation outlook over the coming two years, Draghi stressed that in case the council decide its policies are not enough to end a period of disinflation, that would "imply altering the size, pace and composition of our measures."

Since June, the ECB has slashed interest rates twice, offered cheap loans to banks to boost lending and began purchase programs for covered bonds and asset-backed securities. With the Euro zone's inflation well below the ECB's target, Draghi warned of a deflationary spiral of declining prices and households postponing spending. The ECB now expects the 18-nation economy to grow 0.8% this year, 1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. It projects consumer prices will rise 0.5% in 2014, 0.7% next year and 1.3% in 2016. Draghi highlighted downside risks from falling oil prices on inflationary pressures within the Euro zone.





Monday to bring no major news from Eurozone

Usually, the beginning of the week is rather calm in terms of any fundamental data. The same situation will not be an exception for the next Monday as well. The only data released will include German industrial production. In addition to that, there is a scheduled Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, which may have some minor impact on the single currency, but no considerable movements are expected.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

EUR/USD set for decline after confirmation of triangle pattern

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD remains bearish, as the cross has been moving downwards since the beginning of July and on December 3 has eventually breached the triangle pattern to the south. Moreover, it has reached a new 2014 low at 1.2278. Any negative impetus will push the cross down below this important level, with a long-term goal at 1.2098 (monthly S3). At the same time, right now the pair is also limited by the monthly pivot point at 1.2468 from the upside.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Having a look at the hourly chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has jumped considerably during the trading session on Thursday, just after Mario Draghi's comments on the QE. The shared currency surged above the weekly PP and reached the daily high at 1.2455. However, towards the end of the day it consolidated above the weekly S1 around 1.2380. Today, we predict the pair to hover around this level and wait for the next strong impetus.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

EUR/USD spreads (avg, pip)

© Dukascopy Bank SA







Market sentiment deteriorates to become almost neutral

Advantage of bulls over bears was almost erased during past 24 hours. At the moment long positions account only for 51% of all, a decline of five percentage points from yesterday. Meanwhile, pending orders in both ranges from the spot remain strongly bearish.

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