Canada's retail sales surge in September, BoC to hike rates in May

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"The Bank of Canada will have to start to withdraw stimulus as remaining slack is progressively taken up"
 - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development


An increase in the auto sector, which represents one-quarter of overall retail sales, boosted retail sales in Canada to a better than expected result that may force analysts to raise their expectations for GDP. According to Statistics Canada, sales rose for the first time in three months by 0.8% to C$42.8, while economists had expected a 0.5% gain. The auto component was the main catalyst behind the stronger than expected data in September, with sales increasing the most in a year, up 3.4%, as consumers purchased more light trucks, cars, motorcycles and boats. Canadians also stepped up purchases at food and beverage stores, with sales surging 0.7%, recording the first gain in three months. Other increases were reported at furniture and home furnishings stores, as well as electronics and appliances stores. Economists believed that the release of Apple's iPhone 6 at the end of September contributed to better sales within the electronics category. However, sales excluding cars and parts were little changed at C$32.3 billion. The report follows Canada's positive manufacturing and wholesale trade data, which rose 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively. Positive macro data have been boosting bets around strong monthly GDP growth for September, with analysts expecting 0.4% growth for the month and 2.1% growth for the third quarter. Meanwhile, the OECD expects the BoC to raise its key interest rate in May to contain inflation pressure, as consumer prices are seen to return to the bank's goal of 2% by late 2015.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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