Community Forecasts for September 8-12: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
During the September 1-5 trading week, the most popular currency pair on the foreign exchange market traded in a calm manner. It was only considerably influenced by the ECB decision to cut interest rates even further to 0.05%. Starting the week on a positive note around 1.31 level, the pair dropped 220 pips on Thursday, when the mentioned monetary policy decision of the ECB was announced. The pair generally moved along with our traders' expectations, as almost 58% of them waited for the Euro to lose value. Among other influencing factors, Eurozone's retail sales decreased, while strong manufacturing activity and trade data from the United States push the Dollar higher in all its crosses.
The present trading week is considered to have less fundamental data, which can potentially drive this currency pair. Weekly events include Eurogroup Meetings and Mario Draghi's speech, as well as consumer sentiment and retail sales statistics from the United States. Right now, the Euro is trading even below the 1.29 major level, hovering around 1.2871, slightly above the weekly S1 support line. Dukascopy traders, in turn, became more undecided on future perspectives of this pair's movement, as bullish and bearish votes are equally divided at the moment. The consensus forecast, however, reaches the 1.30 important psychological level, the breach of which may push the pair to trade even higher. Such an opinion is supported by rokasltu, who suggests that "...market reaction on EUR interest rate decrease was too strong. In fact interest rates were close to 0 already and it could invoke some EUR/USD drop, but not so big. Also, US labor market data missed forecast, thus I think EUR/USD will return above 1.30." Meanwhile, 34% of all votes are located in the range of 1.30-1.312.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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