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The third analyzed currency pair, the Dollar/Yen cross, has been the only one, which has shown an increase in value during the August 18-22 trading week. It went along with expectations from Dukascopy Community members, as 55% of them assumed the pair do rise. From fundamental point of view, the pair was driven by American statistics, which turned to be mostly better-than-forecasted. Alongside, Japanese trade deficit worsened, while all industries activity dropped. As a result, the pair appreciated up to the 104 mark at the end of Friday's trading session, on its way crossing a significant resistance level at 103.55/58, represented by monthly R1 and weekly pivot point.
The current week is almost equally divided between U.S. and Japanese fundamentals. Among all data, retail sales in Japan are forecasted to decline further amid the lifted sales tax back in April, while household spending will most likely decrease as well. Moreover, the same for all USD-crosses, the present currency pair will be influenced by the U.S. GDP data this Thursday.
Based on all fundamental predictions, Dukascopy weekly quiz participants became much more bullish on the U.S. Dollar, as now 62.5% of all votes are placed on the long side. On the other hand, the average forecast for this Friday stays at 103.70, meaning that the pair may look overbought for a number of traders. alifari considers that "104.00 is expected to act as resistance and we could see a bearish move into 103.00 level this week." This view, in turn, is not shared by khalimadassi, who believes that "USD/JPY wake up after long sleep and it will continue pushing up at least to test 2014 high at 105.40".
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