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Dukascopy Community members widely forecasted the most popular currency pair to stay almost unchanged during the last week, despite strong bearish sentiment on the market. For already five weeks the pair is trading in the channel down pattern on the 4H graph with both quality and magnitude well above the average level, while during the previous week some positive data from the U.S. forced the pair to decline even more. However, weekly S1 and unexpectedly increased U.S. jobless rate pushed the pair back to trade at levels seen in the beginning of the week.
As expected, this week will not be rich in fundamental data, however, some indicators from the single currency area and the world's largest economy may influence the future development of the most traded currency pair. On Tuesday, retail sales data from the Eurozone may have a significant effect of the pair, as they contribute the most to the long-awaited economic recovery of the region. On the other hand, the ECB is predicted to keep the monetary policy unchanged after a considerable dovish action in the first month of the summer.
Traders, who participated in this week's Community Forecasts became more undecided on future perspectives of the EUR/USD currency pair, betting that the range of the majority of forecasts is scattered from 1.33 up to 1.35 for the Friday of this week. Therefore, the pair may follow the upcoming fundamental news and stay around the current daily pivot point at 1.3421. According to aslamhammad, "I think there is improvement in the unemployment sector of U.S. So, it should have a bearish impact on EUR/USD, which confirms the fundamental expectations to continue influencing the pair this week."
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