EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Triangle

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Usually we recommend to avoid trading triangles with empty space, however, in this case the indication of the narrowing trading range is so clear, that a massive spike looks almost inevitable. Additionally, there is a clear ‘sell' signal from technical indicators, and keeping in mind strong resistance represented by 200-period SMA, the appreciation is unlikely. Moreover, fundamentals are speaking in favour of Euro's depreciation, therefore, the outlook is bearish. The last but not least, is the fact that 62% of traders are holding short positions, is also suggesting bears will be able to push the pair first to pattern's support, and then towards weekly S1 at 2.8144.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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