USD/JPY on the verge of breaking out of a triangle

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
"The U.S. bond yield story is still extremely relevant to dollar-yen. You don't need to look too far beyond 10-year Treasury yields going below 2.5 percent to explain why dollar-yen is trading pretty heavily."
- National Australia Bank (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook

The current situation in USD/JPY is reminiscent of the market observed in Q2 and Q3 in 2013, when the currency pair was also forming a triangle. Accordingly, if we assume that ‘history repeats itself', there is a good case for a robust recovery. And, judging by the spot's proximity to the apex of the pattern, the bullish break-out is likely to happen in the coming weeks, if not days. But first we will need the up-trend and 200-day SMA at 101.93 to be broken.

Traders' Sentiment

While the percentage of long positions is more or less the same as yesterday, specifically 72%, the portion of the orders 50 pips from the spot to acquire the buck is on the rise—59% 24 hours ago and 69% right now.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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