Community Forecasts for April 21-25: GBP/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The cable has performed a strong rally in the middle of the last week, as Janet Yellen's comments and the Beige Book showed the world's largest economy is expanding, albeit at a slower pace. Eight out of 12 Fed districts described growth as "modest", meaning the Fed can postpone its decision to raise the interest rates. Nevertheless, after hitting 1.6842 on April 17, the pair began moving sideways, forming a descending triangle on the 4H chart. This week, the pattern has been already penetrated to the upside, as American companies reported on their Q1 profits, while tensions in Ukraine eased.

At the moment of writing the pair was changing hands at 1.6826, with bulls trying to refresh the recent high. Traders, however, does not believe the pair will continue its appreciation, as 62.5% of votes are bearish, while consensus forecast stands at 1.6768– just five pips above the weekly pivot and daily S2. The overall market sentiment is bearish (70%), while pending orders do not point at a clear direction as almost equal percentage of orders is placed to buy and sell the Sterling versus the greenback. Short-,medium– and long-term technicals are pointing at pair's appreciation, while trader carpe believes "This pair is bouncing between 1.6705 (support line) and 1.6835 (resistance line) on 4H chart. At this moment it is marking 1.6835. If bouncing goes on then it will starting its downtrend until lowest support line."

The pair has a potential to be highly volatile in the second part of the week, especially on Friday, when the ONS will publish the U.K. retail sales, while American statistical agencies will unveil the consumer sentiment index. According to traders, retail sales will surprise markets to the downside, while consumer sentiment will be stronger-than-expected.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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