Community Forecasts for February 17-21: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
A week earlier Dukascopy Community members predicted EUR/USD to hit 1.3573 on Friday, February 14. This level was reached, indeed, but on February 12. Nonetheless, our traders were not expecting such disappointing data from the United States, with retail sales and jobless claims both surprising markets to the downside and sending the pair to the highest in three weeks. From the perspective of technical analysis, the pair is likely to drop this week, as 65% of traders are holding short positions, while almost 54% of pending orders in a 100-pip range are placed to sell the pair, ready to provide additional support. As we assume the outlook is bearish, then the next key supports are located at 1.3606 and 1.3508, represented by a weekly S1 and a support line of the rising wedge pattern on a daily chart (as well as weekly S2).
Dukascopy Community members, however, do not share our outlook, and it seems they are slightly confused about the future performance of EUR/USD. The consensus forecast stands at 1.3684, just slightly above the last week's average price of 1.3648. Moreover, equal number of respondents is having bullish and bearish outlook. On the one hand, Juandata said "last Wednesday the pair received a strong bullish impetus, and I think this trend will continue since pair lows (1 hour chart) are going up without hesitation." At the same time, "the pair continue trading in the range market in daily chart. A range from 1.37 to 1.38 is a very strong resistance zone," according to TradingwithEA. 
FOMC meeting minutes, manufacturing data from Europe, and a bunch of important economic releases from the United States will definitely add some liquidity in the markets, while it is unlikely the pair will rally up to 1.38 without receiving a strong bullish impetus from news. 

© Dukascopy Bank SA
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