EUR/USD approaches 200-day SMA

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
"We think the low inflation readings in the euro area, along with fears of a further decline into deflationary territory, will lead the ECB to cut the main refinancing rate by 15 basis points, and to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points."
- Barclays (based on CNBC)


Pair's Outlook

EUR/USD goes on with the decline and is about to hit the 200-day SMA, which could potentially decrease willingness of the market to short sell the Euro. In case of a rebound, the rally will be expected to be capped by the monthly pivot point and the 100-day SMA near 1.36. Then the currency's depreciation is likely to be resumed, as this quarter's target is still far away, namely at 1.32.

Traders' Sentiment

A notable portion of the market participants have already closed their short positions due to a sharp fall in the Euro's value—during the last five days the share of shorts has plunged from 68% down to 57%. Similarly, there are now less sell orders placed around the current price—57% of the total amount.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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