This week, the financial markets could be moved by fundamental data releases starting from Tuesday. On that day, the JOLTS Job Openings data could impact the value of the US Dollar.
On Wednesday, the top event of them all is set to take place. The release of the US Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Statement at 19:00 GMT. Afterwards, at 19:30 GMT, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is set to host a press conference.
Note that the ADP Non-farm Employment Change publication is also scheduled for Wednesday. It is most likely that I won't cause an impact, as the markets will wait for the Fed rate.
On Thursday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is set to be published at 15:00 GMT. A big deviation from the forecast could cause a market reaction
On Friday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Employment data sets will be released and they are set to impact the market. The release consists of Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings month on month difference.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A move below 2,020.00 is set to look for support in the 2,010.00 level and the 2,005.00 level. These levels have acted as support and kept the commodity from reaching the 2,000.00 mark.
In the meantime, a potential another surge of the metal would have to break the 2,035.00/2,040.00 range, before approaching the 2,050.00 mark.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has passed below the support of the 50-day simple moving average.In the meantime, note that the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages were near 1,990.00 and 1,960.00. The SMAs could act as support during a potential decline below 2,000.00.
Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders are shorting
On Monday, 57% were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 61% to sell the metal.