USD/JPY consolidates, traders hold long positions

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The USD/JPY booked a new high, before consolidating its gains by a minor retracement back down. Most recently, the pair retraced to the 149.00 mark and confirmed it as support. In general, prior forecasts remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, traders had held on to their long positions, as 70% of open position volume was bullish.

Economic Calendar



Next week, the EUR/USD could react to the publication of the German and Spanish Consumer Price Indices on Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Preliminary quarterly GDP is expected to impact the financial markets through the value of the US Dollar.

On Thursday, the publication of the US Core PCE Price Index at 13:30 GMT is most likely going to cause a USD move, as the US monetary policymakers watch this indicator.

USD/JPY hourly chart analysis

An extended move above 149.00 could be slowed down by the 149.50 level, before the 150.00 mark is reached. Higher above, note the descending 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly simple pivot point at 150.20.

On the other hand, a decline of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is expected to look for support in the combination of the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 148.50 and the 148.50 mark on its own. In addition, take into account the 50-hour simple moving average near 148.15. Meanwhile, the 148.00 level did not impact the rate during the recent decline and recovery. Due to this reason it could be ignored. Further below, the weekly S2 at 147.49 and the 147.50 level might slow down the pair, prior to the 147.15/147.35 range being reached.

Hourly Chart

USD/JPY daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the rate has passed below the 50-day simple moving average that had pushed the rate up since early August.

Meanwhile, take into account the additional combined support on this chart in the form of the 100-day simple moving average and the 1998 high level at 147.60. On Tuesday, the rate pierced these support levels, as they held on.

In addition, it was spotted on Thursday that throughout Wednesday's trading the 50-day SMA had acted as resistance. It could keep the rate down.

Daily chart



Traders hold onto long positions

On Monday, traders have been bullish on USD/JPY, as 69% of open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long.

Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-point range around the current exchange rate were 50-86% to buy.

By mid-Tuesday, positions were already 71% long and orders were 91% to buy. It appears that traders expect a surge.

On Wednesday, 69% were long, as some had already taken profits. At the same time, orders were just 54% to buy.

During the second part of Thursday's trading, traders held on to long positions. 70% of open positions were long. In the meantime, 52% of pending orders were to sell. 



The stop losses and take profits might not be close by. However, the situation could be that the stops and take profits are offset by buy orders that are set up to open more long positions, if the USD/JPY moves above 150.00.

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