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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-12-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/12/2015 15:33
Community Forecast
Panzer on USD/JPY:
“The USD has a strong upward trend against all currencies in your shopping cart, but due to some problems lately in some regions of the world, traders resort to resort. Yen again gets the label of refuge, so the USD/JPY is currently balances in a narrow range, due to the falling EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

NZD/USD exits the down-trend
“NZD/USD flirted with another test of the 0.6600 level, but that remains strongly resistant. We still favour selling NZD/USD rallies.”
- Bank of New Zealand (based on The New Zealand Herald)
The New Zealand Dollar succeeded in stabilising above the tough cluster around 0.6550 yesterday and is now aiming for the up-trend.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US pending home sales increase less than expected in October
US pending home sales increased less than expected in October, adding to signs that the housing market recovery was losing steam following a strong start to the year. According to the National Association of Realtors, its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index climbed 0.2% to 107.7. Strong job gains as well as low mortgage rates boosted sales for much of the year. However, rising home values and limited inventories have restrained further growth in the closing months of 2015.
Expert Commentary
"The Reserve Bank of Australia is more concerned about the external developments and a potential appreciation of the Aussie, which would endanger the economic upswing."
- Thu Lan Nguyen, FX Strategist at Commerzbank AG, on Australian economy and AUD
A sharp slowdown in Australia’s largest trading partner, China, along with an aging workforce, heavy levels of private sector indebtedness and fiscal constraints on government led the UBS to declare the sub-trend economic growth may now become the norm for the economy. Do you believe that uplift in exports, along with assistance from household consumption and government spending will be able to mitigate declining business capital expenditure in the years ahead?>>
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Press Review
Tim Collard
The Paris Climate Change Conference - China takes a leading role
The world's tortuous progress towards the achievement of a comprehensive global climate change agreement takes a further step with the 2015 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Paris from November 30 to December 11.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The range containing the indexes narrowed again, keeping most of the gauges only 0.5% away from the base value. The period’s greatest tumble, suffered by the pound’s index after dovish comments of the BoE officials voiced on Tuesday, barely took the measure below the 99.0 points line.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
October release
The sentiment of professors continued to recover going into the final quarter of the year after a precipitous fall in August when China’s equity market crashed, causing a spillover effect across the globe. Nevertheless, slowing growth in emerging economies, particularly in China, remains a topical issue on the agenda of economists and central bankers.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded positive during the previous week
European equity markets traded in the green territory over the last week. A gauge of Euro zone executive and consumer economic confidence stayed at a four-year high in November despite an anemic economy. Most survey responses were sent before the Paris terrorist attacks on 13 November.
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Commodity Overview
Agricultural Commodities Finish Mixed In Low-volume Trade
Corn futures finished the previous week lower, reacting mainly to losses in the wheat market. At the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for delivery in December tumbled more than 6 cents to settle at $3.59 a bushel by the close of trade on Friday. Over the course of the previous week, the most actively-traded corn futures slid 0.2%, as the two grains—corn and wheat—tend to trade together because they can substitute one another in animal feed.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Up
The Swiss Franc has been under heavy bearish pressure since the middle of November due to concerns over extra stimulus from the SNB.>>

AUD/USD 1D Chart: Triangle
The situation with AUD/USD is ambiguous at the moment. From one side, the currency pair is forming a symmetrical triangle, which in this case is bearish because we are in a distinct down-trend (since mid-April of 2013), and the weekly and monthly technical indicators are mostly giving ‘sell’ signals.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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