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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 22-05-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 22/05/2015 15:51
Community Forecast
Jignesh on USD/JPY
“The USD/JPY has been held up by a major support level at 118.91 and we can expect the pair to retest this level once again this week.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD anchored around the weekly S1
“The speech later today by (Federal Reserve President) Janet Yellen might be interesting. But really the Fed is in waiting mode, we think they will raise rates in September but they are unlikely to make that decision in the next month or two.” 
- Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
The Australian Dollar edged up against the US Dollar yesterday, amid weaker-than-expected US fundamental data. The rally was rather insignificant, only 20 pips, as the AUD/USD pair crossed the weekly S1. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US unemployment benefits rise more than expected, manufacturing activity and existing home sales decline
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased slightly more than expected, but the underlying trend continued to point the labour market was tightening.
Expert Commentary
"The hike's impact on the economy would obviously be to strengthen the currency and slow down the housing market."
- David Tulk, Chief Canada Macro Strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank, on Canadian economy
I think the issue is that as much as oil prices have stabilized, they are still obviously well below the level we saw this time last year. As a consequence, that is going to keep business investment quite subdued as companies there are cautious about investing in this environment. >>
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Press Review
SAXO Group
Up to the minutes
A relatively quiet night after what proved to be a tumultuous day yesterday. The exception, of course, being strong Japanese and Australian data...
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
During the period the market was turbulent in only 18% of time in striking contrast to several previous weeks, when the portion of elevated volatility exceeded 40%.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
Despite the brightening outlook for the European economy, there were a number of experts who remained pessimistic about economic prospects. Yet, more and more professors saw the region’s economy recovering and moving towards expansion, compared to the previous month data.

Global Stock Market Review
US shares prolonged their growth streak on possible delay of rate hike
US stock indices rose to new records during the May 11-15 trading week, though surprisingly weak retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment, which indicated the US economy might be losing momentum — potentially delaying the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike.
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Commodity Overview
Analysts Are Keen On The LME Week Asia
Aluminum closed the last week by cutting 2.38% of its value, the most in three months. On Friday, the metal was down about 0.6%. The LME inventories continue to decline. Respectively, stocks were cut 1.17% last week and 2.07% on the monthly basis..
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/JPY 1H Chart: Broadening Rising Wedge
On Wednesday, the EUR/JPY currency pair depreciated down to the pattern’s support around 134. >>

NZD/CAD 1W Chart: Channel Up
There soon may open up an opportunity to go long the New Zealand Dollar. The currency has been preserving the bullish momentum since the beginning of 2009, and right now it is approaching the lower boundary of the upward-sloping channel at 0.86. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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