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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 20-01-2017 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 20/01/2017 16:28
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

USD/CAD struggles to post more gains
"These numbers [Canadian Retail Sales] are not going to help the (Canadian) dollar, that's already on its back foot and I don't think it really changes the (Bank of Canada's) view of things."
- Doug Porter, BMO Capital Markets (based on Reuters)

A group of resistances prevented the USD/CAD currency pair from advancing too much on Thursday, but the Buck still managed to reclaim the 1.33 level. The Greenback still has a relatively strong resistance cluster on its path, which could prevent a surge beyond 1.34.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
European Central Bank keeps its monetary policy unchanged
As markets expected, the European Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its January meeting on Thursday. Following the policy meeting, the ECB President Mario Draghi said the Euro zone’s economic recovery remained subdued. Moreover, the ECB President stated at the post-meeting press conference that the region’s economic growth is unlikely to gain momentum in the upcoming months due to the slow pace of structural reforms. According to Draghi, fiscal policies should also support the Euro zone’s economic recovery within the European Commission's system of rules.
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Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Channel Up
USD/CNH had attempted to form a volatile channel down pattern, but rather went through a consolidation phase to enter a channel up pattern.>>

EUR/NZD 1D Chart: Channel Down
A channel pattern led EUR/NZD down, closer to ten-year lows of 1.4042 which were approach once before in 2015. >>
Expert Commentary
"In our forecasts that were published in December last year, we were looking for 0.84, though now we can see that it has actually bounced a little bit higher than that."
- Alvin Tan, FX Strategist at Societe Generale, on GBP performance in Q1 2017
At the current moment, we do think that pressure on the Euro will intensify as we get closer to the French elections in spring and then it will come off again. >>
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Press Review
Wall Street nerves showing ahead of Trump inauguration
The Trump rally that’s lifted stocks since the November election appears to be fading a bit.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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