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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-12-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 09/12/2016 15:13
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

USD/CAD keeps sliding down
"There has been a huge amount of [US] dollar selling in the past week so I don't think people are as long of the dollar as they might like to be."
- Roger Hallam, JP Morgan Asset Management (based on Business Recorder)

Another day ended with the Canadian Dollar posting gains against the US counterpart yesterday, with the immediate support cluster managing to limit the losses. However, today the Loonie’s rally is unlikely to be stopped by the same demand area, unless the lower Bollinger band kicks in and provides sufficient support at 1.3160.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
ECB extends QE but lowers purchase rate to 60 billion euros
The Euro zone’s bond markets tumbled shortly, while the Euro moved markedly higher after the European Central Bank signalled on Thursday that it would begin to cut back the stimulus program starting from April 2017. The ECB said it would lower its 80 billion euros monthly asset purchases to 60 million euros but prolong the QE asset buys until December next year., pointing to low inflation that, according to the latest forecasts, was projected to achieve only 1.7% in 2019. In the meantime, market analysts expected the Central bank to leave its asset purchases at the current levels for 6 more months. 
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Trade Pattern Idea
CHF/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Up
After it appeared that CHF/JPY has been forming a rising wedge on the four-hour chart, it managed to take the form of a channel and cast some optimism in the technical outlook.>>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Up
Following a break below the bottom trend-line of the year-long channel up pattern, NZD/USD retraced from the broken level to potentially extend the slip into more negative territory, and the 200-day SMA at 0.7053 could serve as the immediate ground, opening up 0.6927/6903 for tests if broken. >>
Expert Commentary
"I believe that it will not have any impact on the widely anticipated rate hike by the US Central bank."
- Robert Martin, US economist at Barclays Capital Inc., on US election outcome
At Barclays, we continue to expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December this year. In our view, the cumulative progress in the US economy is more than sufficient to offset any even potential risks from the outcome of the election. >>
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Press Review
Intercom CEO: Customer service will get more personal in 2017
Intercom is a rapidly growing messaging start-up that is helping companies talk to their customers.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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