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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-03-2017 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/03/2017 15:57
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY: trend-line confirmation eyed
"The euro has been under pressure because of the political headlines. But I think that the euro has been pretty resilient especially versus the dollar. With all the political headlines, I would’ve expected it even lower."
- Georgette Boele, ABN Amro Bank NV (based on Bloomberg)

The EUR/JPY pair surprised with its performance yesterday, having closed trade with barely any losses registered. This suggests that the Euro received sufficient impetus for a recovery when it touched the trend-line last Friday.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Swiss KOF index climbs 5.2 points in February
Data released on Tuesday revealed that the Swiss KOF leading indicator surged markedly over the month of February, pointing to better-than-expected growth in the country’s economy. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute reported the KOF index added 5.2 points in February, which is strongly above its long-term average, jumping to 107.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 102.0 registered in the preceding month. The upmove was mainly driven by the positive trend established in the manufacturing and hospitality sectors coupled with favourable signals from the financial, exporting and construction industries.
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Trade Pattern Idea
ZAR/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Down
The situation on the chart of the South African Rand against the Japanese yen is hard to explain, as two channels have formed a triangle in the middle of another channel.>>

EUR/NOK 4H Chart: Channel Up
Although the title states that there is an ascending channel pattern, which guides the currency exchange rate, the common European currency is showing signs of an upcoming depreciation against the Norwegian Krona. >>
Expert Commentary
"For the end of the first quarter this year, I see the Euro rallying to 1.15 versus the US Dollar, while the EUR/JPY currency pair I expect to trade at 115."
- Christian Apelt, FX strategist at Helaba, on Euro zone and EUR
Overall, we anticipate the US Dollar to weaken because of the President Donald Trump’s recent rheto-ric. We have already seen some uncertainty over the last couple of days and I would expect the Greenback to be quite over-worried, responding to political developments months after the election. >>
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Press Review
CNBC
Sen. Perdue: Taxes alone will not solve our problems
Sen. David Perdue, (R-Ga.), says this is not the time to talks about border adjustment tax but the U.S. needs to trust the free enterprise system.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
“News that Trump formally ordered the US to withdraw fromthe Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal was largely expectedbut investors are watching to see just how far theprotectionist policies go.”

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