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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 30-07-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 30/07/2015 19:06
Community Forecast
Csongor_George_Pal on EUR/USD 
“As mentioned in the news if the Fed raises interest rate to 0.35% that may cause a solid movement in the price. Therefore, my forecast is bearish.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY to test the 137 area once again
“At the margin, there are small downside risks to the ECB inflation estimates. But at the same time some of the external factors are more supportive medium-term: lower oil prices is good for growth as are potentially lower interest rates and a weaker currency.” 
- Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)
The European currency declined against the Japanese Yen yesterday, but found support in form of the 136.00 psychological level. The strong cluster around 135.55 keeps providing substantial support, while the group of significant levels around 137.00 are to limit the gains.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Fed to hike interest rates in September as economy gains momentum  
The Fed remains on track to hike interest rates later this year, with odds rising that the decision will come as soon as its next monetary policy meeting in September, as the US economy continues to perform in line with expectations. The decision to keep rates near at all-time low for at least a few more weeks was unanimous, supported by all ten voting members of the FOMC. Nevertheless, a number of those policy makers have said in recent months that they do not think the Fed should wait much longer. 
Expert Commentary
"Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far."
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback 
I would say that I broadly agree with that point of view. I sympathize a lot with James Bullard’s perspective on the US economy and US interest rate. The US recovery is quite mature and even now there is not that much of inflation pressure, and the monetary policy settings are far too accommodative. >>
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Press Review
Market Watch
Get ready for the dollar’s next big move
The dollar has been on a tear overnight, helped in part by the Fed minutes, which to many didn’t rule out a September interest-rate hike.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: AUD
With its rapid descent and early Tuesday rebound, the Aussie became the week’s second most volatile currency, topped only by its New Zealand counterpart.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors' confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared to the preceding month. 
Global Stock Market Review
European equities retreated on low corporate earnings
Greece’s parliament passed new austerity measures Thursday, clearing the way for negotiations with its international creditors over a third bailout package, worth up to 86 billion euros. 
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals are Under Pressure
Copper prices dropped around 5%, or 11.5 cents amid the concerns over the Chinese economic health. The Chinese manufacturing PMI shrank for the fifth straight month, thus further raising worries over slowing demand from the world’s largest metals consumer.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Up  
The US Dollar has been bullish relative to the Turkish Lira since mid-July, and for now this tendency is likely to continue.  >>

AUD/NZD 1D Chart: Double Top
Despite the confidence with which the technical studies were showing ‘buy' signals, AUD/NZD broke through the lower boundary of the channel we discussed a week earlier.  >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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