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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 30-06-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 30/06/2015 07:57
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
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10:00 GMT Introduction to Visual JForex in English >>
Dukascopy Research & Monitoring team covers an introductonary webinar on  Introduction to Visual JForex in English. Guests and viewers have a possibility to ask and comment live during the webinar.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD bounced back towards 1.12
“A very short lived move to $1.0960 early Monday has seen the euro rebound strongly suggesting that there is more life in the current rebound off the recent lows than originally thought.” 
- Michael Hewson, CMC Markets (based on WBP Online)
A considerable drop in the beginning of trading on Monday managed to provide the common currency with a significant bullish momentum afterwards, and EUR/USD faced no issues when returning back above the 1.12 mark.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German inflation slides into negative territory in June, European leaders call for “Yes” vote in Greece
While all eyes are focused on Greece this week, following the weekend's unexpected and dramatic events, Germany’s latest inflation data may provide temporary distraction. Consumer prices in the Euro zone’s star economy slid into negative territory in June, the preliminary data showed. According to the German Federal Statistics Office, the flash CPI reading fell 0.1% in the month under review from May, whereas economists had expected a 0.1% rise.
Expert Commentary
"In case the Fed will tighten the policy this year, then there will be some negative response from the equity market."
- David Sloan, Senior Economist at 4CAST, on Equity market
Analysts at Barclays have recently released a Global Outlook, forecasting a rather modest 4% gains for global equities. Larry Kantor, Managing Director and Head of Research, says: „We see a flat US market but better prospects in non-US ones... the market continuing to oscillate around the 2100 level for the S&P500, as slowing EPS growth and prospects for higher interest rates combine with a full valuation.” Do you support those forecasts? >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Leaving the Euro Gives Greece a Chance at Growth: Stein
Oxford Economics Director of Asset Management Gabriel Stein discusses Greece leaving the currency union and what it would mean for the country.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The Greenback managed to overcome a series of setbacks, and its index spent the past week above the baseline, becoming the best performer of the period with a 1.58% gain. The USD Index held the leadership during almost the whole period, however, it lost the completion to the yen over the weekend.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
May release
As summer was approaching, professors’ sentiment brightened in May. Europe remained a dark spot, as academia experts lost some confidence in the region’s short-term economic performance. Nevertheless, a slight retreat in Europe’s sentiment index was offset by a rise in the North American gauge and a sharp surge in Asia-Pacific’s sentiment index. As a result, the global six month outlook edged higher by 0.04 points in May.

Global Stock Market Review
US shares dropped despite positive economic data
Shares of major US companies plunged significantly, pushing markets down during the previous trading week. Overall, economic data on US consumer spending and the housing market were strong in May, while the US GDP contracted at a 0.2% annual pace in the first quarter, less than the previously estimated 0.7%. Consumer spending was revised upward, though growth in imports offset rising exports.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Gains Over the Week Despite Monthly Losses
Gold were little changed by the end of last week ending June 19, fluctuating near a monthly high since investors changed their expectations over a higher US interest rate together with the mounting fears about a potential Greek debt default. Gold futures for delivery in August settled at $1,201.90 per troy ounce on Friday, being down 10 cents, or 0.01% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A day earlier, prices went up to $1,205.70, the highest since May 26, before closing at $1,202.00.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rising Wedge
The US Dollar has been recently outperforming the Krone, but we must note that the downside risks are quickly increasing. >>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
In addition to the bearish channel on the four-hour chart of NZD/USD reviewed a little earlier today, there is a downward-sloping channel emerging on the daily chart as well. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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