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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-07-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/07/2015 07:47
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
08:30 GMT UK Prelim GDP Data Release >>
Dukascopy Research Team covers fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Discussion of the historical data, potential trading strategies and projection of the possible market reaction.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is bearish
“In the near term, risk aversion leading to lower U.S. rate hike expectations, and investors cutting short positions in euro may contribute to gains in the currency. Over the long run, the euro is likely to remain in a downtrend owing to its quantitative monetary policy measures.” 
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (based on Bloomberg)
Yesterday the pair has nearly reached the target level of 1.1150, but now there is very little hope the recovery is going to continue.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German business morale improves in July as concerns over Greece subsides
Business confidence in Germany, the Euro zone’s biggest economy, improved more than predicted in July as concerns over Greece have subsided, suggesting a solid growth in the German economy this year. According to the Ifo think-tank, the business climate index climbed to 108.0 this month, up from a revised 107.5 in June and compared with economists’ median forecast of 107.5.
Expert Commentary
"I believe the development on the commodity markets is an important factor for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decisions; however, it is not the only one."
- Thu Lan Ngueyn, FX Strategist at Commerzbank AG, on New Zealand economy and Kiwi
Economists from HSBC mention while China's economy was slowing, along with many other Asian nations, the outlook for New Zealand was still strong. However, the GDP growth slows, dairy prices slump, business confidence slips, the dollar falls and Auckland's heated housing market continues to set records. Do you agree with the economists view? Do you consider this phase as a rebalancing process moving away from a commodity dependent economy? >>
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Press Review
Go all in on China's A-shares, says this expert
Wong Kok Hoi, managing director & CIO of APS Asset Management in Singapore, says the driving forces of the bull market in China remain intact.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The period was mostly notable for the recovery of the previous week’s main losers, while most of the other indexes stayed largely unchanged from their past levels, posting only moderate losses. The week opened with the NZD Index surging above it peers after New Zealand’s PM said that, amid concerns over the overpriced currency, the Kiwi has actually fallen faster and further than expected.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors’ confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared with the preceding month. While the global sixmonth economic sentiment index remained unchanged, the three-year outlook markedly worsened, led by a precipitous decline in the Asian-Pacific and European long-term sentiment indexes.

Global Stock Market Review
European equities retreated on low corporate earnings
Greece’s parliament passed new austerity measures Thursday, clearing the way for negotiations with its international creditors over a third bailout package, worth up to 86 billion euros. Moreover, Greece hopes to have funding in place by 20 August, when it is due to repay 3.2 billion euros to the European Central Bank.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Value Slips to Lowest
Gold declined to a five– year low on Friday, amid upbeat US inflation and housing data that boosted expectations for the interest rate hike later in 2015. The precious metal hit a low of $1,129.60 per troy ounce for the August delivery contract. Whereas, the metal slumped 4.33% on the weekly– basis, in respect of the fourth straight weekly losses.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
NZD/CAD is currently undergoing a correction phase within a major down-trend (since the second half of March). >>

AUD/NZD 1D Chart: Double Top
Despite the confidence with which the technical studies were showing ‘buy’ signals, AUD/NZD broke through the lower boundary of the channel we discussed a week earlier. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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