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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-03-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/03/2015 16:56
Community Forecasts
Community member Likerty on USD/JPY
“As much as European majors are bearish against the US Dollar, the story is a bit different with Yen. I suppose the maximum that bull have room for is until 121.40.” >>
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD declined for the third day
“I see a little bit of softness in the [US] dollar, but I don’t think this [US Final GDP data] is anything to be concerned about in regards to when the Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates.” 
- Jameel Ahmad, FXTM (based on Market Watch)
On Thursday, AUD/USD edged down, but not as much as expected. The Aussie failed to reach the monthly pivot point, as the currency ended its trading session at 0.7826. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Jobless claims decline as labour market strengthens further
The total number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped more than expected for the previous week ended March 21, as brightening economic outlook for the world’s biggest economy is having a positive impact on job creation and decreases the number of lay-offs.
Expert Commentary
"Our estimate for the USD/RUB this year is at around 57.5 or close to this level, amid the $60 per barrel oil."
- Oleg Kouzmin, Economist at Renaissanse Capital, on Russian economy and RUB
Generally, the Ruble is feeling itself much better now. We have seen a significant turmoil in the currency during the month of December, which was triggered by a set of various factors. >>
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Press Review
FX Street
U.S. new home sales hit seven-year high in February
The euro lost over a big-figure since earlier tops around 1.1050, with EUR/USD now testing session lows in the 1.0940 area.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The period could be characterised as calm for majority of the observed currencies. That means that there were very few economic releases to notably influence the currency rates.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
February release
The beginning of a new year was marked by unexpected decisions and moves from major central banks all around the world, which were triggered by the latest economic data and developments in global financial markets.

Global Stock Market Review
US shares strengthened last week despite weak fundamentals
Last week, stock market in the United States expanded notably, even though there were no any major economic data releases.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Appreciate
Gold futures added $15.60 or 1.3% and traded at $1.187.80 an ounce on Friday, the biggest gain in two weeks, amid weaker Dollar and the postpone increase of the US interest rates.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Down
Being unable to overcome supply at 0.7740, AUD/CHF was forced into a down-trend. >>

USD/SGD 1D Chart: Channel Up
USD/SGD has been in a strong up-trend since July 2014, after the currency pair had established a solid support at 1.24. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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