Dukascopy Forex Overview: 07-10-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 07/10/2015 07:57
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1. Community Forecasts Weekly release
2. Market Research CAD
3. Technical Analysis: trade pattern idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD closed Tuesday trading above 1.1260
“To break out of that trading range [1.05-1.15] in either direction we need a significant change in the story, either around the European Central Bank or the Fed.” 
- Russel Investments (based on Bloomberg)
A long-awaited close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Jul-Aug uptrend became reality yesterday.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German factory orders sink in August; September retail sales grow in Euro zone
Industrial orders in Germany unexpectedly dropped in August, fuelling fears that Europe’s largest economy is being hit by slowing global growth. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 1.8% on a monthly basis in the given period, following a revised decrease of 2.2% in July. The reported number missed market expectations of a 0.5% increase in August. On a yearly basis, the gauge advanced 1.9% in the reported month, after posting a revised 1.3% fall in the previous month.
Expert Commentary
"Most of the growth going forward will likely be driven by better performance in the US, which will help Canadian exports to surge and continue solid upturn or household consumption."
- Charles St Arnaud, Senior Economist at Nomura Securities Intl Inc, on Canadian economy and CAD
Most economists expect the current quarter’s output to come in anywhere from 1.5% in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimate of 2.8%. Also, analysts mention that Canada is not in a recession, but in a “weak patch”, one that will likely continue as long as oil and other commodity prices remain low. What is your thought on the matter, given that Canada is a commodity producer? >>
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Press Review
Uncertainty remains over BOJ direction
Martin Schulz, senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute, says the Bank of Japan and Japanese analysts are divided in opinion about the economy.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
After a confident rise in the previous week, the Greenback began to lose ground and became the second worst performer of the period, overtaking only the pound. Among the losers were also the single currency and the yen, whose indexes lost 0.47% and 0.29%, respectively.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
September release
China's "Black Monday" crash on August 24 triggered a tornado which swept through the global economies and equity markets, sowing panic among investors, policy makers and ordinary people, but, as it faded, economic sentiment seemed to restore. September release of Dukascopy Bank Sentiment index revealed that all indices which show academia experts evaluation of regions’ short and long-term economic prospects rebounded after precipitous declines in the preceding month.

Global Stock Market Review
European stock market gained despite weak economic data
Shares of major European companies advanced significantly during the previous trading week, as all biggest stock indexes of the region erased looses of last six months, pushing it to the green zone. Nevertheless, consumer prices in the Euro zone fell 0.1% in September, driven down by the 8.9% drop in energy prices from a year earlier.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Up on Global Cues
Gold spiked on Friday amid disappointing payrolls data from the United States, which showed that the US economy added far fewer jobs than it was expected, prompting that the Fed’s rate hike is unlikely to take place this year. Gold futures for delivery in December reached an intraday high of $1,141.02 before it drifted back to settle at $1,137.9 in the late Friday’s trade, though still climbing 2.17% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Up
EUR/AUD appears to have formed a bullish channel, and there are plenty of other reasons why the currency pair is likely to rebound from 1.57. >>

USD/PLN 1D Chart: Triangle
There is a plethora of signs that USD/PLN is soon going to resume from Jul-14 to Mar-15 recovery. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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