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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 22-05-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 22/05/2015 07:41
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
08:00 GMT German Ifo Business Climate >>
Dukascopy Research Team covers fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Discussion of the historical data, potential trading strategies and projection of the possible market reaction.
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar >>
1. Fun Friday Quiz on Top News and Headlines
2. Market Research EUR
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD fails to return back above 100-day SMA
“Speculation about the timing of when rates will be raised may have been pushed back, but the dollar is being bought and it’s on an uptrend. The euro is clearly overvalued. Even with the drop in European yields, the currency hasn’t adjusted.” 
- Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (based on Bloomberg)
Despite EUR/USD's attempts to return back above the 100-day SMA at 1.1147, the key attention remains on the downside and the closest support level at 1.1013 (weekly S2). This demand is accompanied by the monthly pivot point at 1.1003, and only a closure below both of them will refocus the market on even lower levels.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Euro zone manufacturing activity continues to recover in May, ECB calls for implementing structural reforms
Manufacturing activity in the currency bloc continued to rise in May, according to flash data from Markit. The flash manufacturing PMI for the Euro zone increased to 52.3 points in May, compared to 52.0 in April. The region’s services sector also enjoyed a healthy expansion, with the flash services PMI reading booking 53.3. Also, the closely-watched composite PMI came in at 53.4, remaining firmly in green territory.
Expert Commentary
"The hike's impact on the economy would obviously be to strengthen the currency and slow down the housing market."
- David Tulk, Chief Canada Macro Strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank, on Canadian economy
In light of the collapse in oil prices, Canada is relying on a resurgent US economy to provide a boost to exports and spur investment in activities that are not related to commodities. Lofty oil prices have helped foster investment and employment growth in Canada as well as domestic consumption by making imports less expensive. >>
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Press Review
A New Greek Election Is Quite Likely: Marcussen
Societe Generale Global Head of Economics Michala Marcussen discusses the Greek Debt talks in Riga, Latvia and the status of the negotiations.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
After exceptionally bullish May 6-12 week for the British currency, during the most recently observed period we have seen some downward correction in its value. Excluding two short-term hikes on Wednesday and Friday, the Sterling traded below the baseline for the rest of the time in course of the week.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
All but one region faced a decline of professors’ sentiment in April due to intense headwinds blowing in every part of the world. Yet, Europe appeared to be a bright spot, as its short-term economic outlook improved in the reported month, despite political and economic turmoil on the continent and British Isles. The North America was the biggest downside contributor to the global economic outlook, as the region saw the biggest deterioration in economic forecasts, as both six-month and three-year economic sentiment indexes fell dramatically.

Global Stock Market Review
European market declined despite the growing Eurozone’s economy
Equity market in Europe traded in a mixed environment, mostly declining over the last five trading days, despite the rather positive economic data. Eurozone GDP increased to a two-year high, at an annualized pace of 1.6% in the first quarter but below the expectations. By country, GDP growth was led by Spain at 3.6% and France at 2.4%. German GDP growth, in turn, lagged at 1.2% after leading the region in prior quarters.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Reached Highs Amid Unexpected US Data
Gold prices were restored last week amid disappointing US economic data, that sent the Greenback broadly lower. Respectively, the Dollar drop came after the US industrial production data, with the number indicating a fifth straight month of production cuts. According to Federal Reserve recent notes, industrial output slid about 0.3%, whereas economists had expected a 0.1% increase.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down
Taking into account the latest fluctuations of USD/TRY, there is supposedly a bearish channel forming on the four-hour chart. >>

NZD/CAD 1W Chart: Channel Up
There soon may open up an opportunity to go long the New Zealand Dollar. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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