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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 03-07-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 03/07/2015 15:07
Latest Expert Commentary
“At the current moment our main scenario for the BoJ to implement another round of measures is the October 3rd meeting this year.”
- Kohei Iwahara, Economist of Japan and Pacific at Natixis Asia Ltd, on Japan economy and JPY
In the new economic draft plan, where the 2016-2018 is described as “reform period”, Shinzo Abe is betting on higher economic growth in Japan, rather than fiscal measures. In order to boost the mentioned growth, the plan includes a revamp of national universities and foreign worker recruitment in IT industries. Will that be enough to revive Japan’s economy?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY stuck between 136.30 and 136.90
“Though (a "Yes) outcome would be positive for global risk sentiment, as it reduces the likelihood of any financial contagion stemming from a Grexit, we expect the idiosyncratic euro risks to remain in place.” 
- ING (based on Reuters)
The European currency managed to appreciate against the Yen yesterday, but the 200-day SMA limited the gains and pushed the pair back to 136.42. With the strong cluster around 136.90 still providing substantial resistance, downside movement would not be a surprise, especially if technical indicators are bolstering the negative bias. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US economy creates 223K jobs in June, unemployment rate falls to 5.3%
American employers continued to add more than 200,000 jobs for a third consecutive month in June, while the US unemployment rate declined more than expected. US non-farm payrolls rose by 223,000 in June, following the downwardly revised 254,000 a month earlier, according to the Labor Department. The jobless rate slid to 5.3%, down from 5.5% the prior month, marking the lowest rate since April 2008. Nevertheless, many analysts continue to criticize the figure for not objectively reflecting the real picture of the labour market.
Expert Commentary
"At the current moment our main scenario for the BoJ to implement another round of measures is the October 3rd meeting this year."
- Kohei Iwahara, Economist of Japan and Pacific at Natixis Asia Ltd, on Japan economy and JPY
In the new economic draft plan, where the 2016-2018 is described as “reform period”, Shinzo Abe is betting on higher economic growth in Japan, rather than fiscal measures. In order to boost the mentioned growth, the plan includes a revamp of national universities and foreign worker recruitment in IT industries. Will that be enough to revive Japan’s economy? >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Antonucci Sees 50% Chance of Grexit With 'Yes' Vote
Greece would still face a 50 percent chance of leaving the euro area if it votes "yes" in Sunday's referendum on whether to accept creditor conditions for a resolution of the country's debt crisis, according to Daniele Antonucci, senior European economist at Morgan Stanley.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The Greek debt deal continued to be the central issue during the past week. The Greek crisis had a particularly strong impact on the yen, which acted as a safe-haven currency and surged up over the weekend, gaining 1.7%. The rise of the yen has continued till the end of the period, making it the week’s best performer with a 1.79% gain.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
May release
Surprisingly, the global three-year economic outlook index soared by 0.13 points in May, with the major contributor to the increase being professors’ optimistic outlook for Asia-Pacific’s economy.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares were mixed on Greek negotiations
During the last week of June, European stock market was unsettled, as Greek debt crisis remains unresolved. After months of talks, negotiations on extending the Greek bailout will continue this weekend with the hope of reaching a last-minute deal. Meanwhile, a 30 June deadline looms for a critical 1.54 billion euro debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Investors Eyeing Greece
Gold declined to a three– week low on the week ending Friday 26 before the losses were reversed as investors proceeded to monitor the Greece talks, amid the mounting fears of a debt default. Respectively, investors were eyeing the Greek developments ahead of the deadline for the country to repay 1.6 billion Euros to the International Monetary Fund on June 30.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/JPY 1H Chart: Channel Down
The end of May and the first week of June were exceptionally positive for the US Dollar, which rallied against the Japanese Yen, crossed the 2007 high and hit this year’s maximum at 125.85. >>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
In addition to the bearish channel on the four-hour chart of NZD/USD reviewed a little earlier today, there is a downward-sloping channel emerging on the daily chart as well. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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