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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 24-04-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 24/04/2015 14:56
Community Forecasts

RahmanSL on GBP/USD
“The recent gains of Cable is due to steep fall in the European session, as a fresh bid wave caught the US dollar pushing the Sterling higher across the board. Also, the Greenback was boosted by concerns over the Chinese growth outlook, after the release of week Chinese data. However, my sentiment is bearish, due to upcoming US economic data, which I am expecting to be poor.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY edges closer to 130
“Investors are cutting back short positions which is helping the euro climb.” 
- Nomura (based on Reuters)
On Thursday, the EUR/JPY pair exceeded expectations. Even though the cross almost reached the weekly PP support, the ultimate market reaction was to the upside. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US unemployment claims rise, while activity growth in manufacturing sector slows
The number of applications for US unemployment benefits remained below $300,000 for the seventh consecutive week, adding to signs of a rebound in payrolls after hiring declined in March. Employment growth slowed sharply in March, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 126,000, ending a 12-month streak of gains above 200,000. Jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 295,000 in the week ended April 18, a Labor Department report showed.
Expert Commentary
"The foreign exchange market and energy volatility have clouded the inflation picture alongside the impact from the sales tax hike."
- Josh O’Byrne, FX Strategist at CITIgroup Global Market LTD, on Japanese Yen
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan have declared war on deflation. To your mind, what can we expect from the BoJ in terms of achieving its stated 2% inflation target? >>
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Press Review
How Can Oil Producers Turn $70 Oil Into $90 Oil?
Tortoise Capital Advisors Portfolio Manager Robert Thummel discusses challenges for the oil and gas services industries in the wake of lower oil prices.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The past period was hugely successful for the British pound. Spending the first three days at the base level, the GBP Index surged to 101.5 right after the UK BoE minutes were published. From there on, the Index held well above the baseline and maintained the leading position.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
One of the biggest stories on the global economic arena remains the weakness in commodity prices, particularly oil. Precipitous decline in crude oil over the past several months has been expected to be a net positive for many developed and emerging countries including the US, Europe, India, and China, which are net oil importers. However, oil and commodity exporters such as Canada and Australia have already been severely hit by decline in commodities. Adding to this diverging monetary policy around the world, we get a two-speed global economic recovery. Yet, both short and long term outlook continues to improve, as findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey showed in March.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares dropped as Greek default risk rises
Shares of major European companies declined significantly, pushing markets down, despite the preceding week’s gains. Investors responded to the increased risk of a Greek debt default with a massive selloff of the country’s government bonds. As a result, yields on Greece’s 2-year government bonds soared above 27% while 10-year bond yields climbed around 13%.
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Commodity Overview
Silver Lost the Most Value
Silver futures dropped the most during last week, cutting 0.93% or 19.1 cents, third consecutive weekly loss. Meanwhile, silver futures for May delivery fell 0.34% or 5.5 cents to $16.22 per troy ounce on April 17 on the Comex.
Trade Pattern Idea
XAU/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
In course of last two trading weeks, Gold has been increasingly volatile. >>

AUD/NZD 1D Chart: Channel Down
AUD/NZD has been in a strong bearish trend since it has formed a triple top pattern near 1.13. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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