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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-08-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/08/2015 14:27
Latest Expert Commentary
"I have been very skeptical about the possibility over the BoJ bump, since governor Kuroda has a background in the Ministry of Finance as one of the top FX negotiators about 15 years ago."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese economy
Japan’s economy contracted in the second quarter as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less. Economists are quite pessimistic as well, mentioning that there is no engine of growth for Japan right now, either in or outside the country. Do you agree with their view? Where do you expect to see the economy in the short and long-term run?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY glued to the 136.00 mark
“The bull market in shares is getting long in the tooth but QE (quantitative easing) is still a major factor for markets in Europe, the U.S. and Japan ... Policymakers are also likely to defer planned rises in interest rates.”
- Jupiter Independent Funds Team (based on Reuters)
Although the EUR/JPY currency pair reached the support cluster around 135.45, trade still closed higher at 136.07. The cross refuses to drop below the 136.00 major level, while gains are being limited by a tough resistance cluster around 136.45, represented by the weekly S1, 55 and 100-day SMAs.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US economy grows 3.7% in Q2, jobless claims drop
The US economy grew more than previously estimated in the second quarter, supported by robust consumer and business spending. The world’s number one economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.7% in the April-June quarter, more than a percentage point greater than the 2.3% originally estimated, according to the Commerce Department. It was the strongest growth since last summer and marked a great improvement from the anaemic 0.6% increase during the January-March quarter when a harsh winter undermined activity. Economists believe growth has slowed in the current quarter to around 2.5%.
Expert Commentary
"I have been very skeptical about the possibility over the BoJ bump, since governor Kuroda has a background in the Ministry of Finance as one of the top FX negotiators about 15 years ago."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese economy
Japan’s economy contracted in the second quarter as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less. Economists are quite pessimistic as well, mentioning that there is no engine of growth for Japan right now, either in or outside the country. Do you agree with their view? Where do you expect to see the economy in the short and long-term run?>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Feldstein: No Economic Reason Preventing Fed Liftoff
BMartin Feldstein, an economics professor at Harvard University, talks about Federal Reserve policy, the state of the U.S. economy and recent market turmoil.
Market Research
Currency Strength & Volatility: EUR
China’s crisis continued to be the main driver of the market in the past week. Monday’s fall of the US and European stocks, called new “Black Monday” by the media, led to the strengthening of the safe-haven currencies.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July release
Summertime sadness appeared to dominate among academia experts, as professors’ mood darkened in July amid worries over the Greek debt crisis and the country’s future within the Euro zone as well as China’s stock rout. However, the three-year economic sentiment indexes for all regions surged in the reported month, signaling economists’ confidence that the world economy will strengthen in the long-run. 
Global Stock Market Review
European stock sell-off intensified amid global growth concerns
European equity markets continued to plummet last week, as markets are increasingly worried about global economic growth perspectives on the back of disappointing data from China and uncertainty over expected hike of the Federal Funds rate in the US. A rout began in emerging world; however, it has quickly spread over other markets in developed world.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Shines on Safe-Haven Status
Gold jumped to an over six-week high on Friday, as sharp drop in equity markets and diminishing expectations that the US Fed will raise interest rates in September spurred demand for the precious metal. Gold futures for delivery in December hit a midday peak of $1,167.90 per troy ounce on the Comex, before closing the session at $1,159.60. Over the week, metal’s prices tacked on 3.15%, posting the second consecutive week of gains and the biggest weekly climb in eight months.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
EUR/USD is estimated to continue depreciating in the nearest future, as the pair seems to be receiving strong bearish momentum from the upper boundary of the pattern.>>

EUR/NOK 1D Chart: Channel Up
The first five months of 2015 were bearish, but with the help of demand at 8.34 the currency pair was able to regain bullish momentum. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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