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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 21-02-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 21/02/2012 09:40
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"We’ve set out to wrap up the decision on a new aid program for Greece. I’m confident"
- Wolfgang Schaeuble, German Finance Minister
“We still have a bit of work to do,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said as he arrived for the meeting of euro area finance chiefs. “We’ve set out to wrap up the decision on a new aid program for Greece. I’m confident.”

"We have the U.S. economy accelerating with the job data and housing data also beginning to look pretty good"
- Peter Garnry, an equity strategist at Saxo Bank A/S
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday. The S&P 500 advanced 0.23%, or 3.19, to 1,361.23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.35%, or 45.79 points, to 12,949.87.

"Upwards price-pressure [in the housing market] is likely to be maintained in 2012"
- Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove
U.K. house prices rose sharply in February, said the nation’s largest property website Rightmove.co.uk on Monday. Average asking prices rose to 233,252 pounds, up by 4.1 per cent from January, the highest monthly increase since April 2002. Prices in the U.K. capital rose 2.5 per cent from January to 449,252 pounds.

"A decision for a second rescue package would have a positive impact on stock markets"
- Kai Fachinger, a fund manager at SAM Sustainable Management AG
Swiss stocks edged slightly higher on Monday, led by UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, the nation’s largest lenders amid hopes Euro area finance ministers will approve a second bailout package for Greece.

"Exports are likely to return to surplus in the latter half of this year"
- Takeshi Minami of Norinchukin Research Institute
Japan’s trade deficit widened in January as a strong yen hurt exporters and fuel imports rose after shutdown of most of 54 nuclear reactors. The deficit came to 1.48 trillion yen, estimated the Ministry of Finance.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"More important for the euro is that the ECB will keep monetary policy extremely loose. Any bounce in the euro is a chance to go short. The euro will fall back to $1.20 in a year's time"
- Barclays (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD continues climbing higher after bouncing off 1.2974. In case the rally extends above 1.3322, the pair is likely to reach 1.3435 with a consecutive possibility of surging up to 1.3628. Should resistance at 1.3322 withstand, the price will target 1.2974 first and 1.2891/54 afterwards.

"Just sealing the deal is long way off from saying the whole European debt crisis is nearing an end"
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on WSJ)
The immediate resistance line is at 105.72, being the first of many levels ahead. An initial attempt to penetrate this zone is unlikely to be successful. However, provided that 101.83 halts dips, the outlook will remain bullish.

"Cable feels perky with the 'risk-on' scenario helping"
- Citi (based on Reuters)
After testing 1.5915 (200 day ma) the Cable is expected to fall down to 1.5645. Subsequent targets lie at 1.5580 and at 1.5300. In the short-term rallies should be thus kept by 1.5915, while in the long-term the pair may slide down to 1.5188.

"Expectations are mounting that the yen’s upward trend is coming to an end"
- Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. (based on Bloomberg)
Despite near-term weakness expected from USD/JPY at 79.93/80.25, the overall trend should remain upward sloping, with the target at 86.85. Supports are situated at 79.00, 78.41 and 78.29.

"Recent data [on USA] reflect an economy that started the year on a positive note"
- Conference Board (based on CNBC)
Key support area at 0.9080/66 guards lower levels at 0.8960 and 0.8787/64 (200 day ma). These should hold and repel the pair. From above USD/CHF is capped by 0.9300 and 0.9317/31 (55 day ma).
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Expert Commentary
"Portugal’s tough reforms and austerity measures may not be effective"
Ricardo Cabral on the situation in Portugal. >>

"We do not think that the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing is going to lead to a more significant depreciation of the Yen"
Danske Bank: USD/JPY at 78 at the end of Q1 and 77 in Q2. >>

"4Cast: Pound at 1.40-1.60 in 2012, Euro at around 1.10 by the end of the year"
The Pound showed an immediate reaction on the Moody’s negative outlook on the Euro area. >>
Press Review
Greece Wins Second Bailout
Debt-stricken Greece won a second bailout after European governments wrung concessions from private investors and tapped into European Central Bank profits to shield the euro area from a precedent-setting default.

Oil eases back from nine-month high
Benchmark U.S. oil futures backed off their nine-month highs to slip Tuesday in electronic trading, though some analysts saw room for further gains in the near term.

Asia & Pacific
China cuts bank reserve ratio to boost lending
Some China's central bank has cut the amount of money banks must keep in reserve, in an effort to boost lending and sustain economic growth.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Despite evenful last five trading days, the worth of the Euro, expressed through currency index, did not deviate from its initial value (Feb 13).
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
Current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by the Dukascopy Bank SA. Three-year global economic  outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index rose on Friday, supported by regained Greek optimism and better than predicted US economic data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index posted gains on Friday as US consumer prices climbed less than predicted and core inflation matched analyst expectations.

FTSE 100
British FTSE 100 index traded 0.8% higher on Monday ahead of European finance ministers meeting in Brussels as investors hoped it will result in second bailout package for Greece.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals, excluding platinum, declined on Friday amid lack of clear decision over the Greek bailout.
Industrial Metals
Base metals ended the week mostly lower amid deteriorated investors’ confidence on the uncertainty over the Greek bailout talks and weak demand from the main industry metals consumer, China.
Energy markets faced mixed performance on Friday, with rising crude oil and natural gas and falling Brent and heating oil.
Rural commodities rallied on Friday amid expectation of stronger demand for US grain supplies. 
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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