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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 12-03-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 12/03/2012 10:09
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"The debt-swap results show that international markets see the prospects the Greek economy has to regain a sustainable fiscal situation"
- Evangelos Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister
Greece pushed through the bond swap offer averting the immediate threat of an uncontrolled default and opening the way for a second rescue package.

"The labor market has found its legs in the last few months, and it looks like there’s enough of a broad base that the momentum can be sustained"
- Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas
Employment grew for a third consecutive month in February, a sign the economic recovery is gaining momentum. Employers added 227,000 jobs to their payrolls, the Labor Department said on Friday, while the unemployment remained unchanged at 8.3 per cent.

"Manufacturing is past the worst that we saw in the second half of 2011, but it’s still in a very difficult situation"
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. manufacturing output rose less than expected in January, said the Office for National Statistics on Thursday. Factory output gained 0.1 per cent from December, a sign the economy is still facing headwinds.

"The worst case scenario of a disorderly default has been cast aside, and this is a relief for the market"
- Benoit Peloille, equity-market strategist at Natixis
The Swiss blue-chip index SMI, a measure of the largest and most actively traded companies, gained 0.56%, or 34.58 points, to 6,188.51. The broader Swiss Performance Index rose 0.61%, or 34.66 points, to 5,681.28.

"It’s big that Greece is becoming less of a drag as the global economy rebounds"
- Kazuyuki Terao, chief investment officer of RCM Japan Co
"It’s big that Greece is becoming less of a drag as the global economy rebounds," said Kazuyuki Terao, chief investment officer of RCM Japan Co.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"We're getting steady improvement in the U.S. while the European economic situation remains challenging"
- Wells Fargo (based on CNBC)
Being that EUR/USD’s growth will be halted by resistances located at 1.3285/91, 1.3325 and 1.3389, the outlook remains negative. The initial target lies at 1.2974/54, while a long-term goal is at 1.2624.

"The worst case scenario of a disorderly [Greek] default has been cast aside, and this is a relief for the market But the long-term solvency question remains"
- Natixis (based on Bloomberg)
Despite a recent failure of EUR/JPY near 108.75, formidable support at 106.37 should manage to contain dips. Afterwards we are likely to observe a recovery of the pair from the latter level. Rally should be able to extend beyond 108.75, up to 109.32/58 (55 week ma).

"We expect cable to trade in the $1.57-$1.60 band"
- RWC Capital (based on Reuters)
A strong support situated at 1.5876 (200 day ma) is expected to continue to cap the price from above, while the bias of the Cable remains bearish. In the short-term 1.5650/43 is in focus, followed by 1.5581 and 1.5500.

"The downside risk to U.S. growth is fairly limited from here"
- Russell Investment Group (based on Bloomberg)
As long as a key support at 80.86 is not violated, USD/JPY is likely to carry on advancing. The pair has already overcome 82.23 and should reach 83.80 soon enough. Within a longer time span, 85.53 and 86.80 are expected to be attained.

"Tuesday's retail sales could revive more QE3 talk, especially if the data is weaker than expected"
USD/CHF currency couple is currently gaining bullish momentum, as it is being supported by strong levels at 0.9088/66 and 0.8931. The initial target lies at 0.9246 (55 day ma), which guards 0.9317.
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Expert Commentary
"We expect the NZD to re-strengthen as New Zealand economic growth begins to ramp up and the RBNZ raises interest rates"
Mike Jones, Currency Strategist at Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the performance of NZD . >>

"The US is going through a very slow recovery, with several unanticipated difficulties, if compared to previous recessions"
In light of a steady recovery of the US economy, Dukascopy decided to interview Olivier Morand, Professor of Economics at University of Connecticut, who shared his opinion on the present economic situation in the US and its prospects. >>

"We expect that GDP growth will shrink from 4.3-4% to 3-3.5%"
N. Novikova on the economy of the Russian Federation. >>
Press Review
Greece Now Has ‘New Starting Point’: Greek FinMin
After its second bailout was secured on Friday, Greece has been given a “new starting point” to try and restore its struggling economy to health, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told CNBC.

Shares pause after U.S. jobs, monetary policy in focus
Asian shares fell on Monday as investors paused to assess the effect of strong U.S. jobs data, which scaled back expectations of more easing ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, while uncertainty over Chinese growth also weighed on sentiment.

Asia & Pacific
China reports large trade deficit as imports surge
China posted its largest trade deficit in at least a decade in February after imports of commodities jumped as companies built up supplies.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Throughout the observed period the values of the Swiss Franc and Euro, expressed by their respective currency indices, have been closely related.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current and six-month global economic outlooks improved for a second consecutive month in February. Gauges assessing the economic expectations advanced to 0.48 and 0.52, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year economic outlook rose to 0.66 from 0.64 in January.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index extended gains on Thursday as investors became more confident Greece will be able to complete the debt swap deal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index climbed for a second straight day despite increase in jobless claims last week as investors awaited positive monthly employment report due Friday.

FTSE 100
FTSE 100 index faced a choppy session on Friday despite successful outcome of Greek debt swap deal and optimistic employment data from US.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals were higher on Thursday amid depreciating US Dollar and boosted optimism as Greece managed to agree on the debt swap with required number of creditors.
Industrial Metals
Base metals were mixed on Thursday along with firmer Euro and stronger equities.
Energy commodities apart from natural gas rallied after sufficient number of private lenders opted for debt swap deal.
Rural commodities except for wheat jumped on Thursday as weaker US Dollar and solid equities lent support for the group
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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