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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-03-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/03/2012 09:50
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"It [ECB refinancing operation] is giving us an insurance policy against having any liquidity shock"
- Andrea Beltratti, chairman at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
The European Central Bank Wednesday allotted 529.5 billion euros in cheap three-year loans to 800 lenders in effort to boost the euro-area economy.

"This [GDP figure] shows a steady improvement despite all the volatility in stock prices we had last year and shows that we are nowhere near lapsing back to recession"
- Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group
The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than expected, adding to signs the recovery is gaining steam. Gross domestic product grew three per cent in the fourth quarter, announced the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday.

"Despite the recent pick up, housing market activity is still low compared to long-term norms"
- Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. mortgage approvals rose to 59 thousand in January, the highest level in more than two years, announced the British Banker's Association on Wednesday.

"The risk of a correction is very present as markets have gotten off to a strong start to the year"
- Mikkel Kierkegaard Petersen, a senior equity adviser at Nordea Private Banking
The Federal Statistical Office is to announce change in year-on-year retail sales on Monday. Sales rose 0.6 per cent in December, after increasing 1.8 per cent in November.

"The stock markets are being swayed by the currency"
- Naoki Fujiwara, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co.
Japan’s industrial production grew more than expected in January amid higher demand for automobiles and telecommunications devices. Output rose two per cent, said the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"The ECB is growing its balance sheet. That's a negative for the euro"
- Citibank (based on WSJ)
The recent bullish correction is now deemed to be over. The initial target for the pair lies at 1.3322, followed by a support at 1.3293. Lower levels could be found at 1.3199, 1.3126 (55 day ma) and 1.3066.

"There are still concerns about Europe’s situation. I’m bearish the most on the euro among the major currencies"
- Kengo Suzuki, a foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. (based on Bloomberg)
Being that the currency couple is underpinned by a tough support located at 107.01, the long-term outlook is positive. After gaining a foothold above 108.75 it is expected to advance towards 109.51/58 (55 week ma).

"It's a weak dollar trend and better risk appetite which is helping cable"
- FXPro (Reuters)
Near-term rallies are unlikely to extend above 1.6000 until the end of the week. GBP/USD is anticipated to step lower, down to 1.5899 (200 day ma) first, then 1.5802. Additional support is situated at 1.5650/43.

"Markets are in the process of reassessing the odds of more easing, which is going to continue to put a downward bias on equities, and remain supportive of the dollar"
- Morgan Stanley (based on WSJ)
Bullish momentum of USD/JPY has not yet weakened and the pair still gravitates to 81.49/63. Afterwards the price is likely to set its goal at 83.80. Dips should be contained by supports at 80.42, 80.00 and 79.55 as well.

"Risk-on sentiment is definitely on the table at the moment weighing on haven currencies such as the dollar"
- IG Markets (based on Bloomberg)
The price is presently increasing, however, in order to ascertain its bullishness, USD/CHF will have to climb above 0.9066/88. Another resistances may be encountered at 0.9175 or at 0.9203. Supports are at 0.8931 and 0.8788/73.
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Expert Commentary
"We do believe that with market embracing the positive aspects of LTRO, we would not be surprised to see EUR/USD continue to climb higher"
Paul Robson on EUR/USD. >>

"The Eurozone leaders will meet the requirements of G20 and will increase the funding limit"
R. Camarena’s and C. Robertson’s  commentary on the IMF bailout fund. >>

"There is no direct correlation between the oil price and the gold price"
Amrita Sen shares her opinion on oil and gold. >>
Press Review
Greek Default Payouts May Bring Some Costly Surprises
A restructuring of Greece's colossal debt is widely expected to trigger insurance payouts— and investment banks and hedge funds are working out who will be the winners and losers.

Manufacturing Probably Picked Up for Fourth Month to Lead U.S. Expansion
Manufacturing probably accelerated for a fourth straight month in February after Americans picked up the pace of spending a month earlier, economists said before reports today.

Asia & Pacific
Factory, income data support growth outlook
The economy grew slightly faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter and a gauge of factory activity in the Midwest hit a 10 month-high in February, pointing to underlying strength in the economy.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
During the preceding five trading days the value of the American Dollar has slid by 1%. However, it is important to note that this change was relatively smaller for the US Dollar than for the other currencies, indicating stability of the Greenback compared to the market in general.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year global economic outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index ended Tuesday session on the positive side as the drop in crude prices and better than predicted US consumer confidence supported investor optimism.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index climbed on Tuesday finishing above 13,000 points for the first time since 2008.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average traded almost flat on Wednesday as appreciating Yen offset gains from stronger than expected industrial production in January.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals posted strong gains as investors expect the ECB’s LTRO to inject more liquidity into the Euro Zone’s economy by providing 0.5 trillion Euros of cheap bonds.
Industrial Metals
Industry metals were mixed on Tuesday with advancing zinc and copper and falling aluminum and nickel.
Energy futures tumbled on Tuesday amid positive data from the EU and weak US Dollar.
Agricultural commodities, except for sugar, rallied on Tuesday amid weaker US Dollar and positive headlines from the US and the EU
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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