Dukascopy Forex Overview: 06-10-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 06/10/2015 15:15
Community Forecast
megajorko on EUR/USD
“The great volatility is expected during this Friday. Moreover, I am expecting, the bullish trend will continue due to the Fed’s hesitation of raising interest rate.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY climbs another step higher
“We believe that the economic outlook, whilst not exactly rosy, is better than the headlines would suggest. There is the possibility that the BoJ could increase purchases of other assets, for example local government bonds or riskier assets.”
- ING (based on FXStreet)
The EUR/JPY currency pair was close to reaching a two-week high yesterday, but was pushed back down.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Growth is US services sector slows in September
The US services sector, which accounts for more than 79% of the nation’s private-sector GDP, expanded at a slower pace in September than expected, as new orders and business activity faltered, indicating that the sector might not be immune to turmoil abroad. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped to 56.9 in the reported month from 59 in August and 60.3 in July. The July figure was the highest level on records dated back to January 2008.
Expert Commentary
"Most of the growth going forward will likely be driven by better performance in the US, which will help Canadian exports to surge and continue solid upturn or household consumption."
- Charles St Arnaud, Senior Economist at Nomura Securities Intl Inc, on Canadian economy and CAD
Most economists expect the current quarter’s output to come in anywhere from 1.5% in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimate of 2.8%. Also, analysts mention that Canada is not in a recession, but in a “weak patch”, one that will likely continue as long as oil and other commodity prices remain low. What is your thought on the matter, given that Canada is a commodity producer?>>
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Press Review
High Court Redefines Insider Trading, What That Means
The U.S. Supreme Court opened its 2015 term on the topic of insider trading, declining to hear an appeal that might have resulted in reinstating two key convictions.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
After a confident rise in the previous week, the Greenback began to lose ground and became the second worst performer of the period, overtaking only the pound.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
September release
China's "Black Monday" crash on August 24 triggered a tornado which swept through the global economies and equity markets, sowing panic among investors, policy makers and ordinary people, but, as it faded, economic sentiment seemed to restore. September release of Dukascopy Bank Sentiment index revealed that all indices which show academia experts evaluation of regions’ short and long-term economic prospects rebounded after precipitous declines in the preceding month.
Global Stock Market Review
European stock market gained despite weak economic data
Shares of major European companies advanced significantly during the previous trading week, as all biggest stock indexes of the region erased looses of last six months, pushing it to the green zone. Nevertheless, consumer prices in the Euro zone fell 0.1% in September, driven down by the 8.9% drop in energy prices from a year earlier.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Mostly Down on US Payrolls Report
Gold spiked on Friday amid disappointing payrolls data from the United States, which showed that the US economy added far fewer jobs than it was expected, prompting that the Fed’s rate hike is unlikely to take place this year. Gold futures for delivery in December reached an intraday high of $1,141.02 before it drifted back to settle at $1,137.9 in the late Friday’s trade, though still climbing 2.17% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/NZD 1H Chart: Channel Down
A rebound of the Euro against the New Zealand Dollar from the pattern’s lower edge has been successful so far.>>

USD/PLN 1D Chart: Triangle
There is a plethora of signs that USD/PLN is soon going to resume from Jul-14 to Mar-15 recovery.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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