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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-06-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/06/2016 15:36
Community Forecast
Khimitau on EUR/USD
“The pair is running on a range interval 1,11060 - 1,141790 in the last 30 days with the EMA(20) on average in that interval. In the last days a Bearish movement has emerged and I expect a pull back to the EMA(20) around 1,2700”.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY attempts to edge higher
“The U.K.’s surprise decision to leave the EU is like a Black Swan event Brexit will make the market even more focused on an expansion of BOJ easing.”
- PineBridge Investments (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro edged higher on Monday, but failed to completely erase yesterday’s bearish gap. Nevertheless, the European single currency is expected to strengthen again today, unless the supply area, represented by the Bollinger band, succeeds in limiting the gains around the 113.00 major level.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Loan growth in the Euro zone accelerates
According to the European Central Bank, during the previous month the Euro zone money supply growth rose in May as well as the annual increase in loans to households improved. The broad monetary aggregate M3 jumped 4.9% on a yearly pace, following a 4.6% rise seen in April. Moreover, it was expected to reach 4.8%. Also, it is worth to point out, that both announcements rose on a faster-than-expected rate. The annual growth rate of loans to households came in at 1.6% in May, compared with 1.5% in April.
Expert Commentary
"It is difficult to measure; however, overall, the debt to GDP ratio in China is now above 200%."
- Yang Zhao, Chief China Economist at Nomura International, on Chinese economy
One can base their measurement using different statistic data, but, in general, it is above 200%, and a lot of it lies on the corporate sector. This situation creates certain problems, causing the higher financial cost for the corporate sector, which will put stress on the economic growth, par-ticularly on profitability of the corporate sector.>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Brexit View: Political Crisis, Not Market Crisis
Matt Whitbread, investment manager at Baring Asset Management, talks about Brexit in terms of a political crisis affecting markets and where he sees opportunities in Brexit's aftermath.
Market Research
Relative Currency Strength and Volatility: USD
The dollar’s significance measure stayed almost in line with the weekly and monthly readings. For the first half of the period the composite held at a rather low level, fluctuating in the range of 0.16 to 0.31. The sharp surge of the gauge took place on Wednesday, when the composite jumped to 0.52 right after the Fed interest rate announcement. The increase did not last long, and on Thursday the measure lost 0.2 points.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
May release
Professors downgraded their outlook on North America’s growth potential in the upcoming six months, as the respective gauge slid modest 0.01 points to 0.66 in May. Despite a slight downtick in the near-term sentiment, the region’s economy was expected to gain momentum in three years, with GDP rising 2.06% according to the experts surveyed. Nevertheless, the overall confidence still rather shaky amid uncertainty over the timing of the US rate hike cycle.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded in a negative environment
The Stoxx 600 Index was 0.31% down on week to finish Friday’s trading session at 325.78 points. All of the 19 sub-indices on the gauge posted loses, while real estate shares were the last week’s worst performers. Among individual movers, Seadrill Ltd, a world leader in offshore deep-water drilling, advanced 7.04% to trade at 3.43 euro per share, appearing to be previous week’s best performing blue chip company. 
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Pause as ‘Brexit’ Takes Lead
Gold futures slipped during the last trading day of the previous week, though still finishing the session near Thursday’s 22-month high, on the back of strong market volatility ahead of Britain’s June 23 referendum on its membership in the EU coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve will hardly hike rates in the months to come. On Thursday, the bullion rose to $1,318.90, hitting the highest mark since August 2014, while on Friday futures of the precious metal eased, edging 0.28%, or $3.60, lower, to eventually close the week at $1,294.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
The European Currency formed a falling wedge pattern against the Canadian Dollar at the start of June. However, the last confirmation of the patterns lower trend line might be just due to the selloff of the Euro caused by the UK’s referendum on membership in the European Union.>>

EUR/SGD 1M Chart: Channel Down
For the time being the risks are heavily skewed to the downside. The currency pair has recently confirmed the upper bound of the channel, meaning we should see a sell-off from 1.57 and through the recently established rising support trend-line that is standing at 1.5150.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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