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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 23-09-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 23/09/2016 14:41
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD likely to preserve the bearish trend
“At current levels we are at an important technical juncture. The rally has paused just below a key chart trendline which would be a phenomenal level for bulls to overcome.”
- ThinkMarkets (based on The Business Times)
The Australian Dollar edged up for the fourth consecutive day yesterday, putting the three-year down-trend to another test. This time, however, the AUD/USD currency pair is expected to undergo a decline, as another surge would imply a breach of the current bearish trend.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since July; Existing home sales drop to 5.33 million in August
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial claims for jobless benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 252,000 in the week ended September 16, touching the lowest level since mid-July. Meanwhile, market analysts expected initial jobless claims to rise to 261,000 last week from the preceding week’s 260,000. Filings for US unemployment benefits remained below the 300,000 level for the 81st consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973.
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Trade Pattern Idea
CAD/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Down
The Canadian Dollar is in a descending channel pattern against the Japanese Yen, as the currency exchange rate is trading near the channel’s resistance line.>>

GBP/USD 1W Chart: Channel Down
After showing signs of recovery, GBP/USD dropped right back into the descending channel it had formed over the last two years, repeatedly confirming the lower trend-line in early July, and is now in a flattish movement towards the upper trend-line at 1.3657. >>
Expert Commentary
"We do think UK inflation is going to rise quite sharply at the end of this year and then through most of 2017."
- Ross Walker, Economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group, on UK economy and GBP
It is mainly a con-sequence of the Sterling’s sharp fall around 10% on a trade-weighted basis, which will boost the CPI inflation by over 1.5%, as we expect. Hence, we have a relatively sharp rise of inflation in our forecasts: we anticipate it to peak around 2.5-2.75% in late 2017 and then begin to turn down.>>
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Press Review
Don't bank on oil freeze boosting prices: Russia FinMin
Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, discusses the oil market ahead of OPEC's Algeria meeting next week.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
“The Yen has reversed a portion of the losses; and this has helped to bring EUR/JPY back down to support around 114.08.”


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