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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-08-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/08/2015 14:30
Latest Expert Commentary
"I have been very skeptical about the possibility over the BoJ bump, since governor Kuroda has a background in the Ministry of Finance as one of the top FX negotiators about 15 years ago."
- JOsamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese economy
Japan’s economy contracted in the second quarter as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less. Economists are quite pessimistic as well, mentioning that there is no engine of growth for Japan right now, either in or outside the country. Do you agree with their view? Where do you expect to see the economy in the short and long-term run?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY risks falling to three-week low
“Dollar/yen and euro/yen trades are attracting much attention from both speculators and real money investors. But given the wide price swings, it appears few are willing to trade cash and choose options instead.”
- Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
The support cluster around 136.40 failed to prevent the EUR/JPY from edging lower yesterday. The Euro’s volatility to the downside was limited only by the weekly S3 and the lower Bollinger band around 135.40. Today the Wednesday’s cluster is providing resistance, forcing the pair to extend its decline.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
UK retail sales growth surprisingly accelerates in August
UK annual retail sales growth surprisingly increased this month, due to significantly low cost of living and rising real earnings. The Confederation of British Industry´s distributive trades total sales index surged to +24% in August following a print of +21% a month before, reflecting a pace of growth that was considerably above average for that time of year. The sales in August were supported by clothing and grocers’ sales after two-month stagnation.
Expert Commentary
"I have been very skeptical about the possibility over the BoJ bump, since governor Kuroda has a background in the Ministry of Finance as one of the top FX negotiators about 15 years ago."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese economy
Japan’s economy contracted in the second quarter as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less. Economists are quite pessimistic as well, mentioning that there is no engine of growth for Japan right now, either in or outside the country. Do you agree with their view? Where do you expect to see the economy in the short and long-term run?>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Fed Ponders 'What Ifs' in Wrestling With Rate Hike
Bob Michele, global chief investment officer at JPMorgan Asset Management, talks with Erik Schatzker about comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley about a September rate hike...
Market Research
Currency Strength & Volatility: CAD
There were two distinct groups of currencies, which were moving in different directions during the observed period ended August 25. The period included a so-called “Black Monday”, when the equity markets crashed worldwide amid fears the Chinese economy is slowing down.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July release
Summertime sadness appeared to dominate among academia experts, as professors’ mood darkened in July amid worries over the Greek debt crisis and the country’s future within the Euro zone as well as China’s stock rout. However, the three-year economic sentiment indexes for all regions surged in the reported month, signaling economists’ confidence that the world economy will strengthen in the long-run. 
Global Stock Market Review
European stock sell-off intensified amid global growth concerns
European equity markets continued to plummet last week, as markets are increasingly worried about global economic growth perspectives on the back of disappointing data from China and uncertainty over expected hike of the Federal Funds rate in the US. A rout began in emerging world; however, it has quickly spread over other markets in developed world.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Shines on Safe-Haven Status
Gold jumped to an over six-week high on Friday, as sharp drop in equity markets and diminishing expectations that the US Fed will raise interest rates in September spurred demand for the precious metal. Gold futures for delivery in December hit a midday peak of $1,167.90 per troy ounce on the Comex, before closing the session at $1,159.60.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel Up
In the one-hour chart USD/NOK is trading in the same upward channel pattern, as it is doing in the four-hour chart.>>

EUR/NOK 1D Chart: Channel Up
The first five months of 2015 were bearish, but with the help of demand at 8.34 the currency pair was able to regain bullish momentum. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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