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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-04-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/04/2016 15:08
Latest Expert Commentary
"The other thing that will influence silver is obviously the price of gold, and we are somewhat bullish on the yellow metal."
- Edward Meir, Senior Commodity Consultant at INTL FCStone, on silver
The fundamentals in silver are looking a little bit better and there are a lot of production cutbacks coming in. Some of the mines are closing; some of the zinc mines and lead mines that have silver as a derivative product are shutting down, so the fundamen-tals of the market look a bit better. The issue is that if prices rally very sharply it will impact jewellery consumption, since silver is very price sensitive on a jewellery side. There is a bit of a balance – if producers like the high prices there will be less demand. 
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Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY risks falling under 122.00
“With data continuing to show the economy is stuck in a rut and deflation returning, the last thing the BOJ need to see is a stronger yen.”
- Rabobank (based on Reuters)
The Euro plummeted more than 350 pips against the Japanese Yen yesterday, as the BoJ decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged. As a result, even the third support area was pierced, but remained close buy, unable to pierce the 122.50 level. The Yen retained its Thursday’s strength and, thus, is expected to outperform the European single currency again.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US economy’s growth slows in Q1
The US economy expanded in the first quarter at the slowest pace in two years due to a sharp pullback in business investment and sluggish global demand. Gross domestic product rose at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department. This is the government’s first of three estimates for the quarter before annual revisions in July. Consumers and the housing market kept the US economy from sliding backward, albeit only barely. Among the forces working against the US growth in recent months was a lacklustre demand from overseas and a strong Dollar that have led to a decline in exports, subtracting from growth.
Expert Commentary
"I believe it may solely be what the Fed does and in some rights the Fed is not raising rates again. Then I assume the strong Dol-lar rally, which pretty much ended in March of last year, is over and it will give certainly a respect to other emerging markets that have been under a lot of pressure now."
- Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst at Lindsey Group, on US Economy and Dollar
I suppose that the bear market in commodities is over. Therefore, I like the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. We are just talking about three currencies that are highly manipulated by their central banks and what one does against another is that those three central banks are racing to the bottom. 
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Why Is There No Love for This Bull Market?
Bloomberg's Joseph Ciolli examines the current bull market as it reaches an eight-year run to become the second-longest in history and looks at what we've learned from prior stock market runs.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The past period was hugely successful for the British pound. Spending the whole period above 101 level, the GBP Index surged to 102 on Wednesday ahead of the UK's first quarter GDP announcement, however than, started to decline gradually. Meanwhile, UK GDP is 0.4% quarter-on-quarter compared to the 0.6% readings in the last quarter of 2015, while the yearly change stayed at 2.1%.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
March Release
In North America, professors shared less optimistic outlook for the economy in the foreseeable future, with the six-month sentiment index sliding 0.15 points among local experts, while overseas professors upgraded their view on the region’s economy by 0.04 points compared to the previous month’s index. As concerns the long-term outlook, both foreign and domestic economists’ confidence slipped sharply, though still remaining in the positive territory in the observed month.
Global Stock Market Review
Japanese shares closed purely green
The Nikkei 225 benchmark index soared 7.9% to hover around 17,572.49 points at the end of the trading week ended on April 22. Moreover, all sectors of the gauge posted a sharp increase, with insurance and banking products industries leading the rise by 11.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Among best performers, Computer Engineer & Consult, a Japan-based company that develops software surged 25.8% to 1,753 yen. 
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Commodity Overview
Energy Commodities End The Week Higher
Crude oil started the week with a 3.62% decline, as during the Doha meeting no agreement to cut production was reached. Nevertheless, crude futures made a recovery on Tuesday, after the reports of Kuwait output falling significantly in response to the a strike of workers there. Futures for June delivery experienced substantial volatility in the middle of the week, but still ended up surging up to $44.12 per barrel, which was the first time futures’ prices climbed over the $44 mark in several months. Overall, the previous week was formidable for crude oil, as futures basically kept rising from Tuesday to Thursday, despite a number of negative news weighing on the energy commodity.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/GBP 1H Chart: Channel Down
The fact that the Euro has managed to cross the simple moving average lines on 55-hour and 100-hour time frames is definitely going to support the bullish short-term scenario. However, as soon as the EUR/GBP pair tries to tackle the area between 0.7819 and 0.7831, the probability of a new wave of sell-off is going to increase dramatically. >>

USD/NOK 1D Chart: Channel Down
USD/NOK has recently rebounded from the lower boundary of the channel it has been trading within since it left the boundaries of the rising wedge at the beginning of February. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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