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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 22-02-2017 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 22/02/2017 16:04
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY plunges amid French political concerns
"Volatility is rising as investors start to prepare for theelections. I think investors are going to play this (the elections)on the options market. If you go short euro and you arewrong, it is too directional."
- Thu Lan Nguyen, Commerzbank (based on Business Recorder)

The EUR/JPY cross underwent the anticipated decline on Tuesday, withthe 119.75 psychological support successfully limiting the losses.However, political turmoil in France keeps weighing on the Europeansingle currency, which caused strong downside volatility earlier today.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Euro zone flash PMI jumps to 56.0 in February
Data released on Tuesday showed economic activity in the Eurozone perked up over the month of February, nearing a six-year high.The Markit flash PMI for the shared currency area hit the highestlevel in 70 months, surging to 56.0 in February from 54.4 registeredin the preceding month and beating analysts’ expectations for a 54.3reading.
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Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Channel Up
Although the Australian Dollar trades against the Swiss Franc simultaneously in three ascending channel patterns, the currency exchange rate is about to begin a decline.>>

EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down
The common European currency trades in a descending channel pattern against the Australian Dollar, as the rate approaches the lower trend line of a long term descending channel pattern. >>
Expert Commentary
"For the end of the first quarter this year, I see the Euro rallying to 1.15 versus the US Dollar, while the EUR/JPY currency pair I expect to trade at 115."
- Christian Apelt, FX strategist at Helaba, on Euro zone and EUR
Overall, we anticipate the US Dollar to weaken because of the President Donald Trump’s recent rheto-ric. We have already seen some uncertainty over the last couple of days and I would expect the Greenback to be quite over-worried, responding to political developments months after the election. >>
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Press Review
Michael Boye
Political uncertainty buffets Europe
Just as the Eurozone enjoys a wave of optimism that the west European economies could finally break free of the lacklustre slow growth that has trapped them for years, suddenly political upheaval and instability threaten everywhere in the region.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
“News that Trump formally ordered the US to withdraw fromthe Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal was largely expectedbut investors are watching to see just how far theprotectionist policies go.”

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