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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-07-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/07/2016 07:49
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15:00 GMT Currencies of Interest
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Technical Analysis
GBP/USD to return under 1.32
"If the U.S. economy continues to grow despite the increased headwinds, slack in the labor market will diminish, and we expect the Fed to squeeze in one rate hike before the end of the year, most likely in December."
- Rabobank (based on Reuters)
A rather dovish FOMC stance and poor US fundamentals on Wednesday caused the Greenback to weaken against the British Pound, resulting in the Cable’s 90-pip rally. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD currency pair still remains within its recent trading range, namely between the 1.31 and the 1.3250 levels.
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Fundamental Analysis
Orders for durable goods weaken in June; US crude oil stockpiles rise unexpectedly
For the second consecutive month, orders for long lasting factory goods made in the United States fell, fresh figures from the US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders for durable goods fell 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised drop of 0.4%, whereas market analysts expected core durable goods orders to advance 0.3% in the reported month.
Expert Commentary
"The best solution right now for Italy is to make a final decision about bail-in or bail-out and try to create stronger economic growth..."
- Robert Bergqvist, Chief Economist at SEB, on Italian economy
We know that NPLs in Italy is around €360bn according to IMF estimate, which is a very big number. We also know that the Italian economy has shown real problems in creating stable recovery. This means that Italian banks are facing many challenges in the low-interest rate environment.>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Is Fed Patience a Sign of a U.S. Economy Bounce Back?
The dollar plunged against the yen after the Federal Reserve reiterated a gradual approach to tightening and traders awaited Friday’s Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The yen became the leader of the previous week, posting the second highest index growth, but holding above its peers throughout the period. The measure surged to the week’s absolute high of 3.7 points after the BoJ interest rate decision, but fell back the following day, yielding the first place to the GBP Index.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
Having experienced a completely unexpected United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union in the referendum that took place on June 23, the global economy is now even further from seeing a continuous upturn, especially in the wake of weak EM performance, economic and political challenges in Europe along with ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded in a negative environment
Global stocks declined during the week in volatile trade as markets are awaiting the Brexit referendum. A clear swing in opinion polls in favor of the Leave camp put markets on edge this week. The Brexit campaign will resume on Monday.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Pause as ‘Brexit’ Takes Lead
Gold futures slipped during the last trading day of the previous week, though still finishing the session near Thursday’s 22-month high, on the back of strong market volatility ahead of Britain’s June 23 referendum on its membership in the EU coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve will hardly hike rates in the months to come. On Thursday, the bullion rose to $1,318.90, hitting the highest mark since August 2014, while on Friday futures of the precious metal eased, edging 0.28%, or $3.60, lower, to eventually close the week at $1,294.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Up
Our outlook on EUR/CAD is strongly bullish, as the pair has recently broken through the four-month falling resistance line and confirmed it as the new support. In addition, the technical indicators are mostly pointing north.>>

HKD/JPY 1D Chart: Channel Down
HKD/JPY remains in a strong down-trend since it topped out at 16.20 last year. And while the multi-month outlook on the currency pair is strongly bearish, the upside risks are growing.>>
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Economic Reseach
Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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