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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 22-04-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 22/04/2014 15:40
Featured Product: Community Forecasts
Community member Daytrader21 on EUR/USD
"There is no clear direction for EUR/USD as we're still stuck into some congestion zones. The implied volatility is at all time low, so the first sign for a change in the trend is for a resurrection in the IV, until than I'm expecting the current environment to persist. Also, fundamentally speaking ECB reluctance to tame down deflationary pressure will put limited pressure to the upside for EUR/USD as only higher exchange rate will force ECB to take action."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"The market is making its way back from holiday mode, with Monday's downbeat Japanese trade data still weighing on the yen."
- RBC Capital Markets (based on CNBC)
EUR/JPY rose slightly and it is still struggling to break the monthly PP at 141.70.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
Even though a number of economic indicators points at further strengthening of the U.S. economy in the months to come, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said on Wednesday that she saw interest rates staying very low until the recovery is on a firmer footing and the nation’s economy fully employs available workforce and other resources.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
Switzerland do have some concerns regarding its housing market as the mortgage lending has grown at a faster pace than the economy, and between 2008 and 2013 apartment prices increased by a quarter. Do you think that the central bank is paying enough attention to this matter? >>
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Press Review
Anne-Laure Delatte, Julien Fouquau, Richard Portes
Derivatives and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
In retrospect, it is striking that the sovereign bond spreads of peripheral Eurozone countries surged while the economic conditions were gradually deteriorating.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The Sterling index was one out of five major currencies that posted gains during the last five trading days, advancing 0.28%.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares
European shares rebounded from their weekly losses in the week ending April 17. The European stock markets finished higher on Thursday for a second consecutive day, as U.S. released better than expected manufacturing data and Goldman Sachs published better than forecast earnings results.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Slump on U.S., Abating Supply Concerns in South Africa
Gold started the week on the negative note, plunging the most in 16 weeks, over 2%, late Monday on talks that accelerating inflation in the U.S. leaves more room for the Fed to tighten its policy.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/DKK Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
The USD/DKK pair has been moving sideways since July and it seems that the pair... >>

Weekly CHF/JPY Emerging Pattern: Triangle
There is a high-quality and high-magnitude symmetrical triangle forming on the daily chart of CHF/JPY. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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