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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 26-10-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 26/10/2016 08:26
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD breaks out of deadlock
"We’ve got a bearish $1.05 forecast by the end of the year, but we expect this to be a gradual grind lower and reliant on the Fed eventually delivering a rate hike and continued European portfolio outflows."
- George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG (based on Bloomberg)
Although the bullion remained almost unchanged on Wednesday morning, the yellow metal broke out of the deadlock and became once more volatile by the end of Tuesday’s trading. As the commodity price was almost unchanged on Wednesday morning, it had been more volatile to the downside. Moreover, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a fall of the pair. These factors combined are in favor of a fall of the Euro against the Greenback.
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Fundamental Analysis
German business morale improves unexpectedly in October
German business sentiment improved unexpectedly in October, reaching its highest since April 2014, a private survey showed on Tuesday. According to the Munich-based Ifo Institute, the Business Climate Index, which is based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, jumped to 110.5 points on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis in October, following the preceding month’s 109.5 and surpassing the 109.6 market forecast.
Expert Commentary
"It depends mostly on the sentiment rather than the demand for jewellery in China or India, or the output of the gold mines."
- Eugen Weinberg, Head of Commodity Research at Commerzbank, on gold and silver
In my opinion, it depends on how you define the positive trend. Prices returned to pre-Brexit levels as the degree of awareness for the risks and the risk aversion returned to the previous marks.>>
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Press Review
Yvette Cooper
Upbeat German consumers expected to remain buoyant
Germany’s economy is in focus again today with the release of the November estimate of the Gfk Consumer Climate Index.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
Having experienced a completely unexpected United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union in the referendum that took place on June 23, the global economy is now even further from seeing a continuous upturn, especially in the wake of weak EM performance, economic and political challenges in Europe along with ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States.
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Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Symmetrical Triangle
EUR/AUD put an end to the consolidation of the month-long consolidation with an exit from the symmetrical triangle, extending the weakness with a hit from the Australian CPI data tonight.>>

AUD/USD 1D Chart: Symmetrical Triangle
Following a false break above the upper trend-line of the symmetrical triangle AUD/USD entered in January, the pair has returned into the pattern and appears to be launching a new attack at the targeted trend-line.>>
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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