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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 15-04-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 15/04/2014 16:14
Featured Product: Community Forecasts
Community member Bushidoleaf on EUR/USD
"Currently, EUR/USD is trading above 22days SMA. Parabolic and Stochastic also indicate bullish momentum. This indicates prices are likely to re-test previous resistance of 1.39667 level. However, prices have already breach 2 Fibo levels, it would be logical to expect some form of retracement early on in the week before prices continues its bullish run."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"Everybody is holding off buying now only because they want to buy at a higher yield. But in the end, the only strategy you can take under an environment like this is buy more given the shortage of what you can buy."
- Daiwa SB Investments (based on CNBC)
The pair stopped its advance around the weekly PP at 140.81 and it is still trading below the 55-day and 100-day SMA.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
The world’s largest economy will accelerate in the second quarter. This is clear, as the U.S. economy is finally emerging from the weather-induced slumber, with retail sales for March significantly outpacing markets’ expectations.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
Switzerland do have some concerns regarding its housing market as the mortgage lending has grown at a faster pace than the economy, and between 2008 and 2013 apartment prices increased by a quarter. Do you think that the central bank is paying enough attention to this matter? >>
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Press Review
William Pesek
The West Can't Have It Both Ways on China
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, assigns very low odds to a Chinese hard landing.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
USD currency index was one of the main losers during the last week, posting losses versus seven out of eight other major currencies. The only currency that posted even steeper decline was the loonie.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares
European shares dropped on Friday, heading the major European stock indices to post weekly losses for the first time this month, following a sell-off on Wall Street.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Extend Gains on Ukraine Woes, South Africa’s Strikes
Gold performed better this week compared to the preceding one as the yellow metal was bolstered by the release of the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. The report revealed that projections of the policy markets in relation to the looming rise in rates exaggerated the potential pace of policy tightening.
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/NZD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
While we can argue that GBP/NZD is forming a... >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The current bullish momentum of GBP/USD may not be as strong as during last year’s... >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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