The US economy expanded at a stronger-than-initially-expected pace in the March quarter; however, an economic slowdown remained on the table in the second quarter. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that Q1 GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 1.2%, compared to an originally reported pace of 0.7%. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to expand 0.9% in the reported quarter.
However, that was the worst performance over the past 12 months. Back in the Q4 of 2016, the economy grew 2.1%. Analysts suggested that the Q1 slowdown was mainly driven by the US President Donald Trump's inability to boost economic growth as promised. Even though the Q1 figure was revised up sharply, weak retail sales, business investment, falls in investment inventories and an increase of the goods trade deficit destroyed hopes for a rebound in the Q2. A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed that new orders for US-manufactured durable goods dropped 0.7% last month, whereas orders for core durable goods fell 0.4%.
Most attention turns to US fundamentals again
GBP/USD in limbo between 1.28 and 1.29
The Cable managed to recover from its intraday low yesterday, but failed to breach the immediate resistance, which resulted in trade remaining relatively flat. The pair is likely to keep consolidating today as well, but with risks still skewed to the downside and the 1.28 major level being the main threshold. A decline towards this handle would not mean a complete breach from the broadening rising wedge pattern, as a potential recovery could still take place by the end of the week. Meanwhile, technical indicators retain mixed signals, unable to confirm the possibility of the bearish momentum prevailing today.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Bearish sentiment still prevails
Both traders' sentiment and the portion of purchase orders remain unchanged since Tuesday, taking up 52% and 51% of the market, respectively
A less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. The sentiment at OANDA remains bearish, namely 59% of all open positions are short and the remaining 41% are long. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bearish, with 59% of traders now being short and the other 41% - long on the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders see Pound recovering
Traders believe the Cable is to rise above the 1.30 major level by the end of the next three months, as 58% of survey participants share this belief. While the current price is around 1.2850, the average forecast for August 31 is 1.3027. The 1.34-1.36 range is now the most popular price interval, having 24% of the votes, while on the second place are the 1.20-1.22 interval, with only 16% of the voters choosing it.