On Monday morning the common European currency fluctuated around a notable cluster of significance without a clear direction. However, there are two possible scenarios for the pair's movements during the day, and one of them is more likely to occur. A surge is more likely to become reality due to the fact that the currency exchange rate has rebounded against the long term ascending channel's lower trend line.
US consumer prices fell unexpectedly last month, marking the first decline in more than a year, official figures revealed on Friday. The Labour Department reported its CPI dropped 0.3% in March, following the preceding month's gain of 0.1%, while the so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile items, fell 0.1% in the reported month, following February's 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, market analysts expected the CPI and the core CPI to come in at 0.0% and 0.2%, respectively.
Upcoming events: Empire State Manufacturing Index
EUR/USD faces resistance on Monday
On Monday morning the common European currency began the day against the US Dollar by facing a combined resistance cluster of the weekly PP at 1.0621 and the 100-day SMA at 1.0627. During the early hours of the day's trading the currency pair already bounced off the resistance once and went in for another try. If the resistance levels are broken, the pair would surge up to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.0639 level. On the other hand, if a failure occurs, the exchange rate might retreat to the long term trend line, which on Monday was located at 1.0585.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
SWFX traders remain undecided
SWFX traders remain neutral bullish, as 52% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 55% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have slightly increased their bullish outlook, as 61.07% of trader open positions are long on Monday, compared to 60.66% previously. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients remain almost neutral, as 52.41% of open positions are long now, compared to the 52.78% short positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 17 and April 17 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 at the start of July. In general, 51% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 25% (-2%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 6% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.