The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, official figures showed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims rose to 243,000 in the week ended March 3, up from the preceding week's record low of 223,000. Meanwhile, market analysts expected claims would climb to 239,000 claims during the reported week. Last week marked the 105th consecutive week of claims below the benchmark 300,000 level. Analysts state that the US economy is at or near full employment, with companies struggling to find qualified candidates for job openings. The strong performance of the labour market and rising inflation would probably force the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its next meeting on March 15. The Labour Department said there were no special factors influencing claims data. The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of the labour market trends, advanced 2,250 to 236,500 last week.
Thursday's report also showed continuous jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 2.06 million in the week ending February 25, while their four-week moving average fell 5,250 to 2.07 million. The US Dollar traded little changed after the release, as investors awaited Friday's NFP report.
US NFP is the most anticipated event
GBP/USD seen falling after US NFP
The Cable managed to retain its position on Thursday, as the lack of potential market movers contributed to relatively flat trade. Today everything depends on the US NFP data, a positive reading of which is to spark more bearish momentum and is likely to cause a drop below the immediate support, namely the monthly S2 and the lower Bollinger band. Consequently, the channel's lower boundary around 1.20 might even be put to the test. Technical indicators also suggest the Sterling is to suffer another loss today, but in case the NFP data surprises with a weaker reading the 1.23 mark is expected to be the intraday ceiling.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
There are 67% of all open positions being long today, compared to 65% previously. The number of order to acquire the British Pound dropped over the day, namely from 61 to 53%.
A slightly more optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 69% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (31%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 72% of traders now being long and the other 28% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to fall under the 1.22 major level, as 52% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.22, the average forecast for June 10 is 1.2341. The 1.20-1.22 interval is now the most popular price interval, having 19% of the votes, while on the second place are 1.18-1.20 and 1.28-1.30 price ranges, both with 15% of poll participants choosing them. Furthermore, the 1.30-1.32 interval was chosen by 11% of the voters.