Britain's public sector budget surplus expanded less than expected in January, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK public sector's net borrowing, which excludes state-owned banks, registered a budget surplus increase to £9.4B in the first month of 2017, the highest figure since 2000, compared to the £9.1B a year ago. Nonetheless, the January surplus growth was worse than analysts' expectations for a £14.7B hike. Moreover, borrowing requirements for the first 10 months of 2016-2017 fiscal year decreased to £49.3B from £62.9B. That was the lowest 10-month budget deficit in nearly nine years. Furthermore, the ONS said net debt rose to 85.3% of GDP from 83.4% recorded in the preceding year. Due to certain changes in methodology of the latest data release, the report also revealed there was a £2.1B transfer from the BoE Asset Purchase Facility Fund. Overall, the confidence in the near-term budget outlook is likely to appreciate due to solid revenue growth.
Separately, the BoE Governor Mark Carney, speaking on the February inflation report, pointed out that inflation is entirely affected by the currency, while rates are set to rise more quickly than expected.
All eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes
GBP/USD attempts to reclaim 1.25
Despite strong downside volatility, the GBP/USD pair managed to recover from its intraday low and even close trade in the green zone. The Cable now faces the 1.25 resistance, which is bolstered by the 20-day SMA and the weekly R1. However, a breach of this area does not ensure further bullish momentum is to follow; for that the Sterling is required to climb over the 1.2540 level, as that would slightly reassure the current three-week down-trend is to come to an end. A strong support area just above 1.24 is likely to help the British currency remain afloat, as it has been doing for a whole a month now.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
There are 58% of traders being long the Pound today, compared to 59% on Tuesday. At the same time, the share of sell orders returned to its Monday's level of 55% (down from 58% previously).
A slightly less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 55% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (45%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 58% of traders now being long and the other 42% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to rise above the 1.22 major level, as 59% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.2450, the average forecast for May 22 is 1.257. The 1.20-1.22 interval is now the most popular price interval, having 19% of the votes, while on the second place are the 1.18-1.20 and the 1.34-1.36 price ranges, with 13% of poll participants choosing each of them. Furthermore, the 1.30-1.32 interval was chosen by 12% of the voters.