Consumers' mood in the United States deteriorated markedly in January, a monthly survey revealed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 111.8 points in January after hitting 113.7, the highest level in 15 years, in the preceding month, while market analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 112.6 during the reported period. The survey showed that consumers' assessment of current conditions improved in January. Those stating business conditions are "good" increased to 29.3% from 28.6% in December, whereas those saying conditions were "bad" decreased to 16.1% from 17.8% in the prior month.
Nevertheless, consumers' short-term outlook turned significantly more negative in January, falling to 23.1% from the previous month's 24.7%. Furthermore, the share of those expecting business conditions to worsen rose to 10.7% from December's 8.9%. In addition, the proportion of those expecting more jobs in the upcoming months fell to 19.8% from December's 21.7%, while the percentage of those expecting less jobs remained unchanged at 14.0%. The proportion of those expecting their income to improve declined to 18.0% from 21.5%, whereas the share of those expecting an income drop climbed to 9.6% from 8.6% registered in the previous month.
US data in focus again
GBP/USD takes another shot at 1.26
The GBP/USD pair managed to erase most of Monday's losses yesterday, but with the 1.26 mark once again providing sufficient resistance, preventing the Cable from edging further up. Today the Pound could go sideways, with the 100-day SMA at 1.2481 expected to limit any possible losses. However, technical studies suggest a positive development could occur, in which case the main target will be the 1.27 mark, where the 23.60% FIbo, the weekly R1 and the upper Bollinger band form relatively strong resistance. The given pair is unlikely to surge significantly beyond 1.26, unless weak US fundamentals provide sufficient impetus today.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Now 63% of traders are long the Sterling (previously 60%), whereas 56% of all pending orders are to acquire the Pound (up from 45%).
A slightly less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 57% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (43%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. However, sentiment at Saxo Bank slightly weakened over the day, with 54% of traders now being long and 46% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to fall under the 1.22 major level, as 51% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.25, the average forecast for April 30 is 1.2262. However, the 1.14-1.16 interval is now the most popular one, having 18% of the votes, while on the second place is the 1.20-1.22 price range, with 14% of poll participants choosing it. Furthermore, the 1.30-1.32 interval was chosen by 12% of the voters.