Growth in the US economy's manufacturing sector improved more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Tuesday. The Institute of Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 54.7 in December, surpassing analysts' expectations for 53.7 points. Back in November, the Index climbed to 53.2 from October's 51.9 points. This was the fastest pace of growth seen in five months. Any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. Of the 18 manufacturing sectors, 11 reported growth last month, according to Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Survey Business Committee. Other data released on the same day by the Department of Commerce showed that construction spending grew 0.9% to $1.18 trillion in November, the highest point since April 2006, compared to the previous month's upwardly revised gain of 0.6%. In the meantime, economists expected construction spending to rise just 0.5% in the reported month. The November reading together with the October upwardly revised figure could prompt analysts to revise up their overall US economic growth forecasts for the last quarter of 2016.
Americans became more optimistic about the economy in December since the postelection bump in confidence continues. As data suggest the US consumer confidence reached its highest in more than 15 years during the previous week as Americans expect more strength ahead in business conditions, stock prices and the job market following the election of Donald Trump as president in November. According to the Conference Board the Consumer Confidence Index advanced to 113.7 in December from an upwardly revised 109.4 in November. Meanwhile, the data topped estimates in a Reuters poll for a reading of 109.0. Another reason for the gain in confidence is surging optimism among older Americans. Economists follow confidence indicators because upbeat consumers are more likely to increase personal spending, which makes up most of the US economy.
Upcoming fundamental releases: FOMC meeting minutes
While some medium impact announcements, such as the CPI flash estimate along with the core CPI flash estimate at 10:00 GMT could drive the fundamental fluctuations for the EUR, the single high impact data release – the FOMC meeting minutes - comes at 19:00 GMT and could put some pressures on the pair in case of a surprise
EUR/USD in cluster of patterns amid medium scale bull-trend
Daily Chart: EUR/USD took up where it had left off, posting a small green candle during the morning session. The pair has re-entered the previously broken channel down, but it still holds little power as the re-entry is just part of the pair's movement inside the ascending channel that has taken over in order to guide the pair to the northern trend-line of the ultimately senior descending channel. Immediate resistance lies at 1.0443, the upper boundary of the irrelevant channel, while demand lies at 1.0389, the bottom line of the ascending channel.Bullish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain long on the pair, as 59% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 64% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.0502 by April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between December 4 and January 4 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.0502 in early April. In addition, 28% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days and 8% see it above 1.14. Alongside, 37% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade below 1.02 in three months.