The US job market finished the year on solid footing as an important indicator of layoffs continued to be near historically low levels, showing a resilient labor market. According to the a Labor Department, national jobless claims declined by 10,000, to 265,000, during the previous week from a six-month high in the prior period. The data tend to fluctuate around the year-end holidays, while the trend reveals managers' reluctance to fire workers as demand remains steady. Filings have been below 300,000 for 95 straight weeks — the longest streak since 1970 and a level economists say is typical for a healthy labor market. Millions of Americans have found work in the past five years, pushing the unemployment rate below 5% and eliciting complaints among businesses about how hard it is to find skilled workers to fill open jobs.
In the meantime, the less volatile four-week average of initial claims, meanwhile, dropped by 750 to 263,000. Continuing jobless claims, in turn, advanced by 63,000 to 2.1 million in the week ended December 17. These claims, reported with a one-week delay, reflect the number of people already collecting unemployment checks.
Chicago PMI
The only market fundamental data release, which is set to occur during today and, in the opinion of the markets, could affect the strength of the US Dollar is the Chicago PMI. The data will be out at 14:45 GMT. However, by judging from previous experience it is unlikely to affect the currency exchange rate. The only way it could do that would be if the Chicago area has experienced a cataclysm, which has not been noticed by anyone.
EUR/USD jumps during Friday's session
Daily Chart: During the early hours of Friday's trading session all of the technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate experienced a shock. The shock came in the form of a surge up to the 1.0653 mark. It was supposedly caused by a rush of computer generated orders. It seems that an algorithm run fund with enough funds to cause such a move changed its forecast for the pair from short to long. At that moment, as the algo recalculated the outlook of the pair it put out the buy orders, and that caused the jump.Bullish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain long on the pair, as 56% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 60% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 by April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between November 30 and December 30 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 in late March. In addition, 32% of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days and 9% see it above 1.14. Alongside, 33% of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade below 1.02 in three months.