US manufacturing activity grew for the second consecutive month in October, official data showed on Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 51.9 points in October, following the preceding month's reading of 51.5 and surpassing the 51.8 market forecast. The October growth was mainly driven by a rise in production and hiring. Any reading above the 50 point level 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy. Meanwhile, the Production Index rose 1.8% to 54.6 points, while the New Orders Index dropped to 52.1 from the previous month's 55.1 and the Employment Index increased 3.2% to 52.9 during the reported period. The Export Orders Index rose slightly to 52.5 from the prior month's figure of 52. Analysts widely expect manufacturing activity to pick up in the Q4. The US manufacturing sector was hit by the strong US Dollar between June 2014 and December 2015, as the appreciation of the Greenback hampered US exports. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and it is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting ahead of the presidential election on November 8. However, analysts widely anticipate a December rate hike.
Consumer spending in the United States increased more than expected last month amid higher purchases of motor vehicles and higher inflation, official data revealed on Monday. According to the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending jumped 0.5% in September, following the preceding month's downwardly revised fall of 0.1% and meeting analysts' expectations. When adjusting for inflation, Monday's report showed consumer spending advanced 0.3% in the reported month after dropping 0.2% in August. In the meantime, the PCE Price Index grew 0.2% in September, the same pace as in the previous month. Year-over-year, the Index climbed 1.2%, the largest annual gain since November 2014, up from August's gain of 1.0%. Furthermore, the so-called core PCE Index increased 0.1% in the same month, compared to the 0.2% rise registered in August. On an annual basis, the core PCE Index advanced 1.7%, the similar increase in the preceding month. Officials from the US Federal Reserve meet for two days this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at that meeting ahead of the presidential election; however, analysts widely anticipate a rate hike in December. Back in September, the Fed held rates steady for the sixth straight meeting.
Upcoming fundamentals: US employment and the FED
It is a 100% certainty that the data coming from the US during today's trading session will affect the strength of the US Dollar, which will affect most financial prices. First of all at 12:15 GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be published. However, that is a minor event if compared with what will occur later in the day. At 18:00 GMT the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be announced.
US elections propel gold higher
Daily chart: The yellow metal continued to surge on Wednesday's morning, as it broke out of the ascending channel pattern, in which it had been trading since the start of October. The metal's movements most recently have been dictated by the US presidential election pols than rather fundamentals. As the gap between the candidates closes, financial funds flow into safe investments like gold to hedge themselves from the uncertainty and possible fluctuations. However, regarding today, traders can expect the bullion to surge up to the 1,296.73 level, where the next resistance is located at.SWFX sentiment almost neutral
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold below 1,300 by February
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between October 2 and November 2 expect, on average, to see the metal below 1,300 in February. Generally, 48% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 35% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300 over the next three months.