Confidence among American shoppers improved unexpectedly in August, according to the Conference Board's monthly survey. The survey's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 101.1 points in the eight month of the year, compared to July's reading of 96.7, while market analysts anticipated a slighter acceleration to 97.1 in the reported month. Nevertheless, back in August 2015, the indicator was higher at 101.4 points. The survey is a closely-followed barometer of consumer attitudes towards business conditions, personal finances, jobs and short-term outlook. The data showed that 30% of respondents stated that business conditions were "good" in August, following July's 27.3%, whereas 18.4% stated conditions were "bad", unchanged from last month. 17.3% of respondents predicted an improvement in the next six months, compared to last month's 15.7%, while 11.1% predicted deterioration, down from July's 12.4%. The share of respondents expecting their incomes to improve remained resilient; however, the outlook on the job market was mixed.
Consumer sentiment among Americans remained in the positive territory for more than a year. A reading of 90 or above indicates economic expansion. The US economy is mostly driven by consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all economic growth.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the main event today
GBP/USD attempts to reclaim 1.31
The Sterling experienced another leg down on Tuesday, falling under 1.31 major level. Nevertheless, technical indicators retain bullish signals today, which implies that the US jobs data today could disappoint, causing the US Dollar to weaken. As a result, the British Pound would climb back over the 1.31 mark, meeting resistance only at 1.3160, represented by the weekly and the monthly PPs. However, despite bullish studies, risks of the Cable experiencing a fifth consecutive loss exist, in which case even the 1.30 psychological level could be put to the test.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Still no consensus
There are currently 52% of traders holding short positions (previously 53%). At the same time, 52% of all pending orders are to purchase the British currency, compared to 48% on Tuesday.
Indecision appears to be widespread, as the same neutral sentiment is observed among the traders of other brokers. At OANDA, 52% of positions are long and 48% are short. The sentiment at Saxo Bank is equal to OANDA's, as the numbers of longs and shorts each take up 52% and 48% of the market, respectively.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Majority sees the GBP/USD below 1.30 in three months
Slightly more than half of traders (51%) believe the British currency is to cost 1.30 or less dollars after a three-month period. The most popular price interval, however, was 1.34-1.36 one, selected by 14% of the voters. The second most popular choice implies that the Sterling is to cost between 1.26 and 1.28 dollars in three months, chosen by 13% of the surveyed. At the same time, the mean forecast for Nov 31 is 1.3054.