According to the Labour Department Thursday's release, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits went down during the last week, figuring out that stable labour market strength in early August that could help speed up economic growth. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 in the August 6 week. Initial claims have been below the key 300,000 level for the past 75 weeks in a row, showing the longest streak since 1970 as well as did not depict any signs of rising. Meanwhile, economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims reaching the 265,000 mark in the latest week. Also, Labour Department highlights there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data and no states had been estimated. Moreover, summer usually brings turbulences in weekly figures due to the re-equipment of auto plants. However, this summer, weekly claims figures have been more or less consistent, around 270,000 or fewer for the past eight weeks.
The another report showed the US natural gas futures plunged to a two-month low in North America, after data revealed that natural gas supplies in storage in the US added more than forecasted last week.
US Retail Sales, US PPI and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
GBP/USD risks falling deeper down
The Sterling was unable to maintain trade above 1.30 yesterday, but, as expected, managed to find support around the 1.2950 mark. Even though the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band keep providing immediate support, risks are still skewed to the downside. A number of US fundamentals later today could provide the impetus for another leg down, however, a rally is also possible. Technical indicators somewhat support this outlook, as they are no longer giving bearish signals in the daily timeframe. The 1.3050 is likely to be the ceiling in case of a bullish development, while the nearest resistance rests only around 1.3160.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Still no consensus
There are slightly more bulls today, namely 64%, compared to 55% on Thursday. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to sell the Pound returned to its Wednesday's level of 64% (previously 36%).
Indecision appears to be widespread, as the same neutral sentiment is observed among the traders of other brokers. At OANDA, 60% of positions are long and 40% are short. The sentiment at Saxo Bank remains close to a perfect equilibrium, as the numbers of longs and shorts each take up 53% and 47%of the market, respectively.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Majority sees GBP/USD above 1.30 in three months
More than half of traders (53%) believe the British currency is to cost 1.30 or more dollars after a three-month period. The most popular price interval, however, was selected by 18% of the voters, namely the 1.24-1.26, while the second most popular choices imply that the Sterling is to cost either between 1.28 and 1.30 dollars or between 1.34 and 1.36 dollars in three months, both chosen by 14% of the surveyed. At the same time, the mean forecast for Nov 12 is 1.3162.