The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 269,000 in the week ended July 30, compared to the preceding week's reading of 266,000, whereas market analysts pencilled in a slight drop to 265,000 in the reported period, fresh figures from the Department of Labour showed on Wednesday. The 269,000 initial jobless claims figure reported last week marked 74 consecutive weeks of claims under the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The data also showed that the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends, grew 3,750 to 260,250 in the reported week. A Labour Department analyst highlighted that there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data. In the meantime, the number of continuous jobless claims fell 6,000 to 2.14 million in the week ended July 23, while the four-week moving average jumped 5,250 to 2.14 million. Last week's claims report has no impact on the NFP data for July, set for release on Friday. Economic desks forecast nonfarm payrolls to show growth of 180,000 for the seventh month of the year, following June's hike of 287,000.
As markets expected, the Bank of England (BoE) introduced a range of additional monetary policy measures and upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts at its August meeting on Thursday amid Britain's decision to leave the European Union. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted anonymously to cut the main lending rate to a record low 0.25% from 0.50%. Furthermore, the central bank expanded its quantitative easing (QE) programme to 435 billion pound from 375 billion pound, while markets expected the BoE to leave its QE scheme unchanged. Three of nine policymakers voted unanimously against the decision. The latest batch of surveys showed that the UK economy contracted at its steepest pace and may even slip into recession following the Brexit vote, however, the BoE kept its 2016 economic growth forecast unchanged at 2.0%, as the UK economy had a stronger than expected performance in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, the central bank lowered its 2017 growth forecast to 0.8% from an earlier estimate of 2.3%, while the 2018 estimates were slashed to 1.8%. Moreover, the BoE increased its 2018-2019 inflation forecast to 2.4% amid weakness in the Sterling.
Upcoming fundamentals: US data for July and June
On Friday all of the data affecting the EUR/USD pair is incoming from the US, as the countries statisticians have gathered and are releasing a lot of data about previous months. All of the data will be published at the same time, at 12:30 GMT. The most important of data on the list are US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for July, the US Trade Balance for June and the US Unemployment Rate for July. Moreover, the pair will be affected by the Change in Manufacturing Payrolls and the Participation Rate.
EUR/USD near 1.11 mark on Friday
Daily chart: The common European currency fell to 1.1126 on Thursday against the Greenback, and the pair almost touched the monthly pivot point at 1.1107. On early Friday morning the currency exchange rate has slightly surged and gained ten pips by 5:00 GMT, and it faces the 55-day SMA at 1.1154, if it continuous to surge during Friday's trading session. The daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the pair during today's trading session. On the other hand the currency pair might move lower and meet with the monthly PP, which is supported by the 20-day SMA.SWFX traders bearish on Friday
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.10 in November
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between July 5 and August 5 expect, on average, the currency pair around 1.10 by the end of October. Though 52% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.10 in ninety days, with 25% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 43% (+3%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.11 and 1.18 on October 30.