US Federal Reserve was forced to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate flat at 0.25-0.50% after its June 14-15 meeting, owing to continuous risks to economic outlook and stagnating inflation expectations. Domestic data has been uneven recently, with mild payrolls report considered to be the key trigger for accepting the status-quo. All member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted for the decision, with Kansas City Fed President Esther George abandoning her hawkish call to raise the benchmark by 25 basis points. Janet Yellen, the Chair, agreed that there are some downside forces to interest rates that may be longlasting. On the short-term basis, she admitted that the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership has weighed on the Fed's decision to postpone the upward revision to the Fed Funds target range. The famous dot plot, which reveals individual members' perceptions of how interest rates are going to evolve in the future, showed that participants continue eyeing two interest rate hikes in 2016 and three in 2017. The terminal rate for the long run has shifted down to 3% from 3.3% in the March projection. The Fed estimates a 2% GDP growth every year during 2016-2018, also reflecting a moderate downward change in the outlook. Consumer prices, measured by the PCE Index, however, are forecasted to increase 1.4% this year. This indicates to an improvement from 1.2% seen three months ago.
As reported by the US Census Bureau, there were 1.164 million constructions of residential buildings started in the US in May. The data beat expectations of 1.15 million, while still being below the April's reading of 1.172 million. During the previous month there was a sharp increase in the construction, but a lot of homes on the market became less affordable, amid a rather sharp increase in prices for those homes. Mortgage rates, however, are at low levels, somewhat boosting demand for apartment and house acquisitions, but, nonetheless, for some prices remain too high. Single-family houses have a higher impact than apartments, as they provide a larger economic boost and they rose 0.3% up to 764,000, while apartments showed only 396,000 residences, thus, barely changed compared to the previous month's data. Furthermore, only 1.138 million building permits for construction were issued in the US last month, with the data slightly failing to meat expectations of 1.15 million. Among permits the single-family ones provided concerns, as they showed the largest monthly slowdown during the past 15 months. The permits for houses dropped 2% down to 726,000 units, while the apartment permits were at 381,000 units. This weaker data is unlikely to have a serious effect on the GDP second estimate, as it is forecasted to show signs of improvement, being driven by higher demand in household.
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Gold struggles around 1,280 level on Monday
Daily chart: After suffering losses on Thursday, the yellow metal regained losses and it even gained additional value on Friday, as gold reached the 1,297.48 level at the end of day's trading session. However, on Monday morning, the bullion is losing value against the US Dollar, as the metal is at the 1,281.50 mark, and it is struggling on its downward movement with the support provided by the first monthly resistance at 1,278.62. In the meantime, aggregate daily technical indicators predict a surge for gold, and in such case it would have to break the resistance provided by the weekly PP at 1,295.15.SWFX traders decrease bearish sentiment on Monday
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,275 by the end of August
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between May 20 and June 20 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,275 by the end of August. Generally, 61% (-3%) of participants believe the price will be generally above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 32% (+2%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250 over the next three months