For the previous month, Germany's trade balance advanced unexpectedly. According to the Federal Statistics office, Germany recorded a headline of 25.6bn euros for April from 21.8bn euros in April 2015. The seasonally-adjusted surplus increased to 24bn euros from a revised 23.7bn euros in May, compared with an expected decline for the month. Moreover, the adjusted surplus was at a record high and will resume supporting the single European currency. The overall German current account surplus expanded to 93.9 billion euros for the first quarter of 2016 from 79.8 billion euros the previous year despite a slight widening in the services deficit. Meanwhile, analysts had expected Germany's trade balance to plunge to 23bn euros last month. Meanwhile, German exports went up by 3.8% in April compared to the same month a year ago, while imports remained nearly unchanged and as a result have led to a wider trade balance for Europe's most powerful economy. Overall, German exporters have strong global position on competitiveness grounds, which will continue to underpin the trade surplus in the short term. Moreover, the surplus will also make it challenging for the ECB to push the Euro substantially weaker even taking into account the quantitative easing programme.
For the previous month, Germany's trade balance advanced unexpectedly. According to the Federal Statistics office, Germany recorded a headline of 25.6bn euros for April from 21.8bn euros in April 2015. The seasonally-adjusted surplus increased to 24bn euros from a revised 23.7bn euros in May, compared with an expected decline for the month. Moreover, the adjusted surplus was at a record high and will resume supporting the single European currency. The overall German current account surplus expanded to 93.9 billion euros for the first quarter of 2016 from 79.8 billion euros the previous year despite a slight widening in the services deficit. Meanwhile, analysts had expected Germany's trade balance to plunge to 23bn euros last month. Meanwhile, German exports went up by 3.8% in April compared to the same month a year ago, while imports remained nearly unchanged and as a result have led to a wider trade balance for Europe's most powerful economy. Overall, German exporters have strong global position on competitiveness grounds, which will continue to underpin the trade surplus in the short term. Moreover, the surplus will also make it challenging for the ECB to push the Euro substantially weaker even taking into account the quantitative easing programme.
Upcoming fundamentals: Massive US data and European bank speakers
EUR/USD falls to 1.12 level on Tuesday
Daily chart: Ignoring Monday's gains, the European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Tuesday and fell to the level of 1.12. However, on Wednesday morning the currency pair has rebounded from the weekly S1 at 1.1192, and it has appreciated a little bit. At the moment, the exchange rate is at 1.1208. If it rebounds from the support, the pair could move north to the weekly pivot point at 1.1282. Although, in such case it would also have to pass the 100 and 20-day SMAs, which are respectively located at 1.1219 and 1.1262.SWFX traders decrease bearish sentiment
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 by August
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 15 and June 15 expect, on average, the currency pair around 1.12 by the end of August. Though 43% of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.12 in ninety days, with 20% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, only 19% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.12 and 1.18 on August 31.Dukascopy Community members are bearish on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD