The number of people seeking US jobless aid plunged from a 14-month high during the last week, partially erasing increases of the last two weeks that had fuelled concerns about rising layoffs. According to the Labour Department, initial applications for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 for the week ended May 14. That followed a previous jump to 294,000, which was the highest recorded level since February 2015. Such a decrease was initiated due to fewer filings in New York following the preceding weeks' jump that reflected difficulties adjusting for the spring break holiday. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 275,500. Claims have now been below 300,000, showing the longest stretch since 1973 meaning a strong job market. A small rate of dismissals, in line with stable hiring, shows companies have confidence in the demand outlook. The impressive bunch of firmer economic reports was released amid signs that the Federal Reserve probably could raise interest rates again. The minutes from the US central bank's for the April 26-27 policy meeting, published on Wednesday, revealed that most officials are considering raising rates in June in case data continued to point to an improvement in second-quarter growth.
Retail sales in the UK jumped much higher than expected in April, along with shoppers that put jitters over the outcome of Britain's referendum on membership to the European Union aside to go on a spending spree. Retail sales climbed by 4.3% in April on the year-on-year basis, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The data was way above the revised 3.0% recorded in the previous month and the 2.5% that was expected by economists. The figures suggest that the UK economy is poised for mild economic growth in the second quarter, after a sluggish start to the year. The data came a day after the ONS released figures showing an uptick in Britain's employment level and a slightly higher average wage. The number of people in work rose by 44,000 to 31.6 million in the three months to March compared to the previous three-month period, while the jobless rate stayed at 5.1%. Among the factors that have recently weighed on British growth is uncertainty surrounding the UK's future in the EU, with the nation's referendum on the matter due June 23. Bank of England officials say that a vote to exit the union would slow the UK economy and see customers and businesses hold off on spending decisions. Those in favour of leaving the EU, however, say that Britain would ultimately benefit from the chance to negotiate its own trading agreements and regulations.
Upcoming fundamentals: US home sales to continue increasing in April
EUR/USD extends losing streak
Even by sliding only 12 pips on Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair has set a tone for deeper losses in the foreseeable future and prolonged its drop for a third straight day. Yesterday's loss was capped at the weekly S2 at 1.1182, but EUR/USD may retest this support over the last trading day of this week. If successful, the Euro will be a position to put the 100-day SMA (1.1152) at major bearish risk. However, a sell-off is not anticipated by the technical indicators on both daily and weekly time frames. In case the bulls revive, for that purpose the nearest supply level is located at 1.1246 (weekly S1).Future traders' expectations are more positive today
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy Community members are bearish on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.13 by August
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 20 and May 20 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.13 by the end of August. Though 55% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.14 in ninety days, with 40% (-2%) alone seeing it below 1.10. Alongside, 27% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.14 and 1.20 on August 31.