Gold rose on Thursday following three days of declines amid weaker global equities, but traded below a 15-month high as the US Dollar rebounded versus the Japanese Yen after a recent plunge. Gold had advanced to a 15-month peak of $1,303.60 on Monday as the Greenback plummeted against the Yen after the Bank of Japan stood pat on its monetary policy. Investor interest in gold remains strong. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, climbed 0.07% to 825.54 tonnes on Wednesday, the highest level in over two years.
American private employers added the fewest workers in three years in April, considerably below economists' expectations, with signs of weak hiring activity across most sectors. Employers added 156,000 jobs in April, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc. Economists had predicted an increase of 193,000. Moreover, ADP lowered March's gains to 194,000 from the prior estimate of 200,000. The ADP figures come ahead of the Labor Department's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment. Economists are looking for US private payroll employment to have increased by 193,000 jobs in April, compared with 195,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to be 202,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.0% recorded a month earlier. Fed policy makers are counting on a strengthening job market to pull the economy out from a first-quarter slump. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he is optimistic about the US economy and was giving little weight to the slowdown in first quarter gross domestic product. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said two rate hikes this year are certainly possible. In a separate economic report released Wednesday, the U.S. trade deficit shrank in March by almost 17% to $40.4 billion — the lowest level in more than a year.
Canada's exports fell sharply in March and the country's trade deficit with the rest of the world widened to a record level, fuelling doubts on the strength of the recovery in the resource-reliant economy. Canada posted a record trade deficit of C$3.41 billion in March, Statistics Canada reported, whereas expectations were for a smaller C$1.4 billion trade deficit. Exports dropped 4.8% following a dramatic 6.6% decline in the preceding month. The disappointing figures were led by slower exports of autos and parts, down 6%, as well as consumer goods, which slipped 4.6%. In the meantime, imports fell 2.4% to C$44.4 billion in March, with volumes edging down 0.3% and prices declining 2.1%. A decrease in imports of consumer goods and aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts was partially offset by higher imports of energy products. Exports to the US plunged 6.3% to $30.4 billion in March, while imports fell 4.8% to $28.9 billion. The Canadian economy shrank slightly less than expected in February, as the GDP dropped 0.1% after growing 0.6% in January. The Bank of Canada projects growth of 2.8% during the first quarter of the year, but warns that the Q1 boost is likely temporary, with much softer gains estimated for the second quarter.
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Gold fails at weekly PP, forced to rebound
Bearish traders attempted to prolong a correction as lower as possible yesterday, but they met a tough support in face of the weekly pivot point at 1,272.92. Considering that this demand is reinforced by the monthly pivot $20 from below, gold's bears decided not to take additional risks. The bullion's spot closed just under the 1,280 mark. Both daily and weekly aggregate technical indicators are pointing to a recovery, as there are no single signals to sell the metal. In the wake of these events, the bulls keep eyeing the 2015 peak at 1,307.06.71% of all SWFX traders expect gold to fall down
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,275 by the end of August
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between April 5 and May 5 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,275 by the end of August. Generally, 61% (-4%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 28% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250 over the next three months.