Canada's annual inflation rate slowed in March as lower gasoline prices offset increases in food and shelter costs, while a robust data on retail sales offered a positive sign for first-quarter economic growth. Canada's all-items consumer-price index advanced 1.3% from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said. The March annual core-inflation rate, which strips out volatile components such as some food and energy prices, surged 2.1%. That followed a 1.9% advance the previous month and was ahead of the 1.7% expectations. Measured on a monthly basis, the consumer-price index climbed 0.6%, the highest in almost a year, while core inflation rose 0.7%, compared with the 0.4% forecast. Prices for food jumped 3.6% on an annual basis, following a 3.9% gain the previous month. Prices for food purchased from stores increased 4.0% compared with the same month last year, while prices for shelter rose 1.1%. Offsetting the gains were a 1.0% annual drop in Statistics Canada's transportation index, which includes gasoline. Clothing and footwear prices slid 0.4%. Canadian retail sales had a surprise gain in February with strength in most categories led by motor vehicle dealers. Sales increased 0.4% to C$44.2 billion, Statistics Canada reported. Motor vehicle and parts sales rose 1% to C$11.5 billion on the month, and have soared 15.3% over the last 12 months.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, reaching its lowest level since 1973, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter could be temporary. First-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates are currently as low as a 0.2% annualized rate. The economy expanded at a 1.4% rate in the fourth quarter. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the US, dropped by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 in the week ended April 16, according to the Labor Department. That was the lowest level for unemployment claims since the week of November 24, 1973. That also marked the 59th consecutive week that initial jobless claims remained below 300,000, the longest such streak in more than four decades. Employers created 215,000 jobs in March, whereas the unemployment rate edged up to 5%, but the rise partly reflected more workers entering the labour force. Fed officials will likely consider the relative health of the labour market at next week's policy meeting. However recently, policy makers have voiced their concerns about weakness in the global economy and are watching inflation readings and wage gains closely. A large majority of economists expect the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at the meeting.
Upcoming fundamentals: Mid-term focus on Fed, short-term on housing data
Gold closes below 55-day SMA, risks surge
A sharp drop of gold prices on Friday followed its inability to consolidate above the 1,263 resistance one day before. With prices plunging as low as 1,232 on the last day of the previous week, the bullion created a dangerous precedent by closing below the 55-day SMA for the first time since January. In case there is no rebound over the next 24 hours, we are going to shift our attention to the 1,216 mark, namely nearest possible support represented by the lower Bollinger band in cooperation with the weekly S1. Upward risks are dampened, as there are formidable resistances located in the 1,235/43 range.Sentiment unable to recover noticeably, adds only two more pp
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,260 by the end of July
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 25 and April 25 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,260 (-15) by the end of July. Generally, 59% (-4%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 28% (+5%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250 over the next three months.