Gold climbed on Monday even more as oil producers failed to agree on an output freeze, sending crude prices and equities plunging, and stoking safe-haven demand for the precious metal. At the meeting in Doha, oil producers that supply nearly half of the world's output failed to reach a deal to curb their output after Saudi Arabia appeared to deny any agreement that did not include Iran. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported its holdings climbed 0.70% to 812.46 tonnes on Friday.
Canada's factory sales declined far more than expected in February amid a sharp decrease in shipments of motor vehicles and petroleum and coal products. The value of factory sales dropped 3.3% to 51.19 billion Canadian dollars in February from January, according to Statistics Canada. The fall reversed some of the gains over the previous three months and appeared to be steeper than the 1.5% drop economists had expected. Sales slipped in 16 of the 21 industries Statistics Canada tracks, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the manufacturing sector. Motor-vehicle sales plunged 10.5%, the first decline after four consecutive months of increases. Excluding auto-sector sales, manufacturing shipments declined 2.2% in the month. In volume terms, February factory sales decreased 2.0% compared with the previous month. The sharper-than-expected decrease could spark concerns for economists who have been calling for the non-resource side of the economy, including manufacturing, to lead Canada's economic growth in light of falling global commodity prices. Separately, Canadian home prices and sales rose in March, showing the country's housing market boom still had momentum. The housing market, a pillar of economic strength in the years since the financial crisis, was more positive, with existing-home sales up 1.5% in March.
China's economy grew by 6.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016. This is the slowest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. Growth in gross domestic product was in line with expectations, but down slightly from the 6.8% reported for the December quarter of 2015, according to the figures released by the China's National Bureau of Statistics. Despite the slight deceleration in growth, analysts suggested that the economy had a "good start" to the year, since the outlook has improved with both the manufacturing and property sectors rebounding strongly. Alongside the GDP report, the NBS also released industrial output and fixed asset investment reports. Data showed that fundamentals in March were much stronger than forecast, suggesting that growth would pick up in the next quarter. Industrial output increased by 6.8% from a year earlier, a sharp acceleration on the 5.4% pace of February, which is well ahead of anticipated increase of 5.9%. In the meantime, fixed assets investment overshot the expected growth of 10.2% and rose by 10.7%. Consequently, a solid performance by the world's second largest economy would help to improve global demand, since the increase of GDP by 6.7% means that China is contributing as much as the US in terms of global growth in the first quarter.
Upcoming fundamentals: Statistics-free day expected
55-day SMA acts as major support for gold
Price lows of April 14-15 were touching the 55-day SMA, but the bears were far from being successful to close XAU/USD below this vital support line. On Friday gold commenced a recovery up to 1,234 and the rally continues taking place on the April 18 morning. We see short-term gains being contained by the 1,239/41 area where both weekly and monthly pivots rest at the moment. Nonetheless, medium-term risks remains skewed to the upside because of the upward-sloping 55-day SMA. Bullish case is also indicated by the daily and weekly technical indicators.Market sentiment gets healthier for a fourth consecutive day
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,275 by the end of July
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 18 and April 18 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,275 by the end of July. Generally, 65% (+2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 22% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250 over the next three months.