As expected, the yellow metal did another test of the resistance of the 1,640.00 level. The price failed to surge higher and retreated to the support of the 55-hour simple moving average near the 1,620.00 level.
Afterwards, the rate started fluctuating almost flat just above the SMA.
Next week, data can be ignored, as the fundamental background is so much changed that historical data does not matter.
However, take a look at the list of previously notable events, as the markets will be looking at them to understand the impact of the virus.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Given that yellow metal is supported by the 55-hour moving average, currently located near 1,620.00, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market. In this case the rate could face the resistance formed by the monthly R1 at 1,668.23.
However, if the exchange rate fails to surpass the 1,640.00 level, it is likely that it could continue to consolidate. Also, it is unlikely that bears could prevail in the market, as the rate has the additional support of the 100- hour SMA and the psychological effect of the 1,600.00 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the price has reached the resistance of the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1,633.61 and left the 55-day simple moving average at 1,585.33.
In the meantime, the rate has been finding support in the 1,600.00 level and the monthly simple pivot point at 1,607.96.
Daily Chart
Long sentiment gradually declines
On Friday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment was 54% long. Namely, 54% of open gold position volume was in long positions.
The long sentiment had been declining gradually throughout the week. On Monday, traders were 66% long.