- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 56% to BUY
- Non-relevant data releases throughout the day
The previous comment made that the breaking of the hourly SMAs could cause a bullish swing upwards has become reality.
The Census Bureau released the Building Permits data that came out slightly better-than-expected and instead of the forecast of 1.33M, the residential building permits grew by 1.35M in the period of March.
Building Permits rose by 2.5% annually, reaching the 1.354M growth pace, thus signaling how much of a construction is in the process. Moreover, single-family house building has retained close to the utmost levels ever since the recession began.
Empty day for the US Dollar pairs
From the perspective of Dukascopy Analytics Thursday's trading session is set to be empty, as there are no data releases scheduled to occur during the day, which might cause a notable increase in volatility.
However, be careful during the various speeches of three FOMC members at 12:00, 13:30 and 22:45 GMT. One of them might reveal too much information about monetary policy, which might cause a bounce in US Dollar related pairs.
In addition, a rather dangerous time to be in the markets will be the 12:30 GMT release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the US weekly Unemployment Claims.
USD/JPY reaches monthly R1
The US Dollar was pushing lower against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. Bears, however, failed to earn massive gains, as a fall below the 107.15 mark was restricted by the 55– and 200-hour simple moving averages.The expected bullish push was provided during the Asian session when the pair gained 27 pips and touched the monthly R1 at 107.53. The pair should maintain its up-trend in this session, as well. Apart from the aforementioned monthly R1, the next significant resistance is set by a trend-line circa 107.80.
Meanwhile, the prevalence of the bearish sentiment should send the pair towards the 55– and 200-hour SMAs. Given lack of data releases today, a further decline is unlikely.
Hourly Chart
It is still assumed that the patterns, which can be observed now, are too small and are only a part of a larger trend, which is still in the formation.
Watch the daily chart in an order to try and spot the moment, when the new medium term pattern reveals itself.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 56% of open positions remained bullish during the morning hours. Trader set up orders are likewise bullish with 57% of pending orders being to buy the Greenback.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 69% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 57% long on this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility