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Market News and Research

GBP/USD lingers near 1.40
Thu, 15 Mar 2018 08:44:43 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
 
  • 58% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
  • Traders are bullish with 51% long positions (-3%)
  • Downside potential until 1.3930
  • Upcoming events: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims

The US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday that US retail sales data did not meet the expectations, instead the gauge fell by 0.1% in March, continuing the slowdown in the first quarter of 2018.



This was the third consecutive month of declines in the US retail sales since April 2012. One of the main reasons for the negative retail sales data is the decrease in household spending on motor vehicles and other big–ticket items.

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No significant events



This trading session is likely to be quiet in terms of fundamentals, as no significant market shakers are scheduled for today. The Unites States is two publish three sets of data at 1230GMT, namely, the Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing indices, as well as the weekly Unemployment Claims.

Read More: Fundamental Analysis


GBP/USD consolidates below 1.40

Even though the general tendency for the pair was southwards on Wednesday, GBP/USD failed to make a notable advance in this direction. From the upside, the Sterling was restricted by a two-week high of 1.40, while support was provided by the 38.20% Fibo at 1.3957.

As apparent on the chart, the pair is currently trading in several channels that flash opposing signals. However, technical indicators demonstrate that some upside potential still exists in the market, thus favouring a rate increase up to the 1.4015 territory where the weekly R2 and the senior channel are located.

This appreciation is unlikely to be as steep as the drawn one-week channel, thus pointing to a more gradual increase today. Meanwhile, a possible fall should not exceed the weekly R1 and the monthly PP at 1.3830.

Hourly chart




The GBP/USD currency pair was moving along the 55-day SMA during the previous week. The Pound, however, failed to surpass the 1.40 mark, thus diminishing its trading range.

Even though some upward momentum might still follow this week, it seems that the pair is ready to breach the aforementioned moving average decline down to the bottom boundary of the senior channel located near 1.3650.

Daily Chart



Mixed signals

The market sentiment of SWFX traders has decreased by three percentage points to 51% of open positions being long. In addition, 52% of pending orders are to buy the Sterling.

The market sentiment of OANDA traders has turned bullish with 52% long positions (+2%). Saxo Bank clients have increased notably their bearish sentiment, as 60% of open positions are short (+5%).


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


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