- Market sentiment is 53% bearish
- 73% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY gold
- The metal's price gets squeezed in between SMAs
- Bullion passed junior support
The bullion failed to find support in the lower trend of the previously active channel up pattern. However, it seems that the support levels just above the 1,320 mark managed to put a stop to the fall of the yellow metal's price.
The US private sector created 235K jobs in the reported month, expanding at a slightly slower pace than in January. At the same time, US non-farm employment change number still surpassed the February's forecast.
Ahu Yildirmaz, the Vice President and Co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said that the US labor market is keeping its growth rate uninterrupted and that persistant gains have been seen in industries related to leisure, hospitality and retail.
Employment data coming in
In regards to macroeconomic data releases on Thursday the day's calendar is empty. The reason for that is the fact that swing traders are focusing on the EUR/USD rather others pairs. Namely, swing traders were expecting the release of the ECB Minimum Bid Rate publication at 12:45 GMT.
Although, there are still events set to occur, which will impact the financial markets from the side of the US Dollar. The official US employment data package is set to be published at 13:30 GMT. The data will consist of the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.
XAU/USD prepares for break out
Downside risks dominated the yellow metal on Wednesday, as it closed the session with a 1.09% drop against the US Dollar. As a result, the pair breached the short-term ascending channel and subsequently rebounded from the upper boundary of a senior pattern circa 1,324.00.
The morning session was spent relatively calm within the bounds of the 55- , 100– and 200-hour SMAs. Given that the northern barrier is likewise reinforced by the monthly PP, traders might be reluctant to form significant advances during the following sessions.
Technical indicators are more in favour of a fall that would guide the rate back into the breached channel and towards the 38.20% Fibo retracement at 1,316.67.
In case the opposite occurs, the pair is likely to be restricted by a two-week resistance in the 1,340.00 area.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can notice that the recent resistance encountered is not just represented by the upper trend line of the short term channel. Near that level the support line of the previously active dominant ascending channel pattern is acting as a resistance.
Daily Chart
Markets short the metal
SWFX market sentiment on Wednesday had not changed since Tuesday, as traders were 53% bearish. Meanwhile, pending commands remain slightly bullish, as 51% of all set up orders were to buy.
OANDA traders remain slightly bullish, as 53% of open positions were long on Thursday. In addition, Saxo bank traders are also going long in 52% of all cases.