- SWFX market sentiment is 68% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 66% to SELL
- ADP Employment Change
The previously drawn pattern have held the ground. In addition, the patient traders have taken advantage of a large dump in the USD/JPY pair, if they did not get scared during the sudden surge that occurred in the middle of Tuesday's trading.
The US economy kept expanding in February, data showed on Monday. The ISM revealed that its non-manufacturing PMI stepped lower to 59.5 points in the reported month, compared to 59.9 in January.
Growth for the 103rd consecutive month, with 62.8% in February, was reflected by the non-manufacturing business activity index, showing 3% increase from the prior month.
This week's events
Markets on Wednesday are resuming swing trading macroeconomic data. Namely, swing traders will concentrate on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which will be released at 13:15 GMT. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the bank's live webinar platform.
This data release will give the first hints about the situation in the US job market. However, this data release is not an official data publication. The official US labour data will be published on Friday.
Meanwhile, remember that the most notable event, which is set to affect the USD/JPY pair, will be the publication of the BOJ Policy Rate, the Monetary Statement and the following Bank of Japan's press conference on Friday.
USD/JPY linger near 2017 low
The US Dollar was edging lower along the 100-hour SMA on Tuesday.The Yen, however, managed to strengthen 45 pips during the Asian session, as risk-averse traders responded negatively to the resignation of Trump's economic advisor Gary Cohn that have heightened concerns over a trade war.
The pair has since remained stable, lingering slightly above the 2017 low of 105.35. If looking at today's session, some downside potential is still apparent for the pair. Even if the aforementioned low is breached, the Greenback should be stopped by a downward-sloping trend-line near 105.10.
In terms of resistance, a possible near-term target is the 200-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the upper boundary of a three-month channel circa 106.25.
Hourly Chart
As there have been more than one adjustment to the long term descending pattern. It can be stated that there might be bias at play from a technical perspective.
Namely, due to the couple of variations of how the pattern can be drawn, there are fluctuations in various descending patterns, depending on who is at play in the market at the time. However, the trend is still downwards aimed in most long term scenarios.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are on the long side, as 68% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours. However, trader set up orders were neutral.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 67% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 58% bullish in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility